The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will kick off their best-of-five ALDS series on Thursday evening. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Red Sox-Rays prediction and pick.
Boston won the AL Wild Card game with a 6-2 victory over the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. The Rays come in as the No. 1 seed in the American League after posting a regular season record of 100-62. Tampa Bay boasts another group of lower name players who do nothing but produce, while the Red Sox will be hoping JD Martinez, who missed the AL Wild Card game with an ankle injury, will be able to return in some capacity during the ALDS.
Eduardo Rodriguez (13-8, 4.74 ERA) will take on Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.43 ERA) in what will be a battle of left-handers in Game 1 of this series.
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Here’s how the bookmakers have set the lines for Sunday’s game.

MLB Odds: Red Sox-Rays Odds

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Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-154), +138 ML

Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+134), -149 ML

Over 8 runs (-105)

Under 8 runs (-115)

Why the Red Sox can win this game

Boston was a good road team throughout the 2021 season, going 43-38 away from home. The Red Sox are also relatively healthy. Aside from Martinez's ankle, Boston has virtually every other key contributor from this season healthy and on the playoff roster. The Red Sox enter Thursday night winners of four straight and five of their last six. Tampa was the better team over the course of the regular season, but they have now been off since Sunday. The Red Sox come into the series hot, which is a dangerous thing in October baseball.

Why the Rays can win this game

The Rays are top to bottom the best team in the American League, as evidenced by their win-loss record. Their offensive attack is deep, patient and balanced, as is their pitching staff. Manager Kevin Cash seems to pull the right strings more often than not, and the Rays are a favorite to get back to the World Series after losing to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2020 ‘Fall Classic'. Rookie Wander Franco has been one of the most consistent players in the MLB down the stretch of the season, and slugger Brandon Lowe paced the team with 39 home runs. Tampa is a deep, talented team that seems poised for another deep postseason run.

Final Red Sox-Rays Prediction & Pick

Rodriguez allowed 11 earned runs and four home runs in just 21 innings vs. the Rays this season. He was better on the road than he was at Fenway Park, but the Rays present a tough challenge for the left-hander. McClanahan held Boston to five runs across 16 innings vs. the Red Sox this season. Overall, McClanahan was 7-3 with a 3.50 ERA at home. Ride the Rays in Game 1 as they will look to build a series lead on their home field, where they were 52-29 during the regular season.

Final pick: Rays ML (-149)