The series is now split at one game a piece as the Red Sox bounced back from an 8-0 loss on Tuesday night. The 7-3 victory was fueled by an early offensive explosion as Boston put up five runs in the first inning and never looked back. With just 1.5 games separating these two clubs in the standings, which one will have the edge in the series finale?
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Red Sox-Blue Jays odds.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Blue Jays Odds
Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-157)
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+137)
Over 10 Runs (-111)
Under 10 Runs (-109)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
The Red Sox have led the way in the American League East for some time now. They are now starting to see their division lead slowly evaporate right in front of their eyes. The crowded AL East sees four teams within 1.5 games back of the Red Sox coming into the finale of this series. At 4-5 in the last nine games, Boston will have to find a way to build on its recent victory and string together a few more.
Boston has been absolutely raking this season. The Red Sox are second in the league in batting average at .263 and have hit the fifth-most homers as a club. Rafael Devers, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts are putting together monster seasons as the Red Sox look to climb their way back to relevance after a horrible 2020 season. Although this team is certainly led by their offense, the pitching staff has put together a solid year with a 3.89 ERA.
Nick Pivetta will be the man on the bump for the Sox as they look to take this crucial divisional series. Pivetta is undefeated on the young season with a 5-0 record and 3.16 ERA in eight starts. Opposing hitters are batting just .189 against the Boston right-hander this season. He has given up four or less hits in six of his eight starts. Although Pivetta has struggled against Toronto in his career, he couldn’t be hotter coming into this start.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
The Blue Jays have been one of the best teams in all of baseball over the past couple of weeks. Despite the loss in Game 2 of this series, the Blue Jays have still won six of their last eight games to date. They’ve won 12 of their last 18 games by putting on an offensive clinic.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is showing everyone why he has potential to be the best slugger in all of baseball throughout his career. Guerrero is hitting .368 over his last nine games with three long balls. He is now top-10 in batting average, home runs, RBI, and OPS. It’s true that when a guy is hitting the ball that well, it tends to be contagious. Guys like Randal Grichuk are enjoying monster years because of the support they have in the lineup as well. The offense has been stellar and the pitching has been serviceable for this club during the young season.
Steven Matz will get the nod for the Blue Jays in the finale. The Blue Jays southpaw is 5-2 with a 4.29 ERA in nine starts this season. Matz is coming off one of his best starts of the season, tossing five shutout innings and striking out a season-high nine batters. He will hope to get the .250 opposing batting average down a tad as he gets set to face one of the best lineups in all of baseball. He struggled in his only other career start against the Red Sox.
Final Red Sox-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
I see a lot of value in this extremely high total. Sure these are two of the best lineups in baseball, but we have a solid pitching matchup on our hands in the rubber match. Nick Pivetta has been absolutely dominant for the Sox and Steven Matz is coming off a phenomenal start in his last outing. I predict that at least one of these starters will have a productive outing, which will keep the score under 10 runs.
FINAL PICK: Under 10 Runs (-109)