The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles will square off this weekend in an AL East matchup in Baltimore. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Red Sox-Orioles prediction and pick, laid out below.
Boston currently occupies the last place spot in the AL East with a 67-72 record, losing four games in a row. The only team in the division without a winning record, Boston is on the brink of being eliminated from the playoffs just one year after reaching the ALCS.
Baltimore is 73-65, fourth place in the AL East, just four games out of the final AL Wild Card position. For the first time since making the Wild Card game in 2016, Baltimore is truly in a playoff race as the season begins to wind down. Winning the weekend against Boston would set them up for an exciting stretch run.
Here are the Red Sox-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Red Sox-Orioles Odds
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+168)
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston is sending their defacto ace Michael Wacha to the mound in this one. Wacha has gone 10-1 with a 2.58 in 18 starts, striking out 83 batters in 101 innings. Last time out, Wacha held Tampa Bay to two runs across six innings, striking out seven. Batters have hit just .164 against Wacha's changeup, with 47 of his 83 strikeouts coming on the cambio. Boston's bullpen has suffered this season, struggling to a 4.55 ERA, which is 25th in the league. Even with back-to-back awful outings, Garrett Whitlock has a 3.46 ERA on the season, but just a 2.72 ERA in 19 relief appearances, striking out 40 in 36.1 innings. John Schreiber owns a 2.08 ERA in 55 appearances, striking out 65 batters in 56.1 innings pitched.
Rafael Devers leads the team with 37 doubles, 25 home runs, and 73 RBI, slashing .287/.347/.526. In addition to his otherworldly offense, Devers has significantly improved his defense, bringing his WAR to 4.1, according to Baseball Reference. Trevor Story has belted 16 home runs and leads the team with 13 stolen bases without being caught. Xander Bogaerts leads the team with a .318 batting average, adding 13 home runs and 37 doubles. JD Martinez also has hit 37 doubles, hitting 11 home runs. Alex Verdugo has a .286 batting average, adding 37 doubles and nine home runs. Boston leads the league with 314 doubles, nearly 30 more than the next closest team.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore will send Jordan Lyles out as the starting pitcher in this one. Lyles has gone 10-9 with a 4.25 ERA and 123 strikeouts in 152.1 innings across 27 starts. In his last seven starts, Lyles has pitched to a 2.72 ERA, going 4-1 in that stretch. Baltimore's bullpen was fantastic in the series opener, tossing five shutout innings in a 3-2 victory. The group ranks fifth in the league with a 3.18 ERA in 544 innings. Closer Felix Bautista has pitched to a 1.62 ERA with 12 saves and 80 strikeouts in 61 innings. Cionel Perez has appeared in 57 games, going 7-1 with a 1.48 ERA. Dillon Tate has pitched to a 2.66 ERA in 58 appearances, registering his fourth save with 1.1 shutout innings last night.
Anthony Santander leads the offense, hitting 27 home runs and 79 RBI, adding 22 doubles and 48 walks. Santander is now the main offensive threat with Trey Mancini suiting up in Houston. Ryan Mountcastle is second with 21 home runs and 77 RBI. Cedric Mullins and Austin Hays have each hit 30 doubles, with Hays adding 15 home runs. Mullins and Jorge Mateo have each stolen 30 bases, with Mateo belting 12 home runs. Rookie catcher Adley Rutschman has impressed, leading the team with 51 walks, hitting 29 doubles and 10 home runs in just 90 games.
Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick
This one might be better than expected.
Final Red Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (-205), over 8.5 (-110)
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