The Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers will begin a three-game series on Tuesday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Reds-Brewers prediction and pick.
This series will go a long way in determining how competitive the NL Central is for the rest of the season. The Brewers are currently leading the division by 7.5 games, with the Reds sitting in second place. Cincinnati is the last real opponent in the division, as the rest of the teams have lost their playoff hopes. If the Reds can pull off a win in this series, the division crown suddenly becomes well within reach. A series win for Milwaukee would essentially lock up the NL Central in its favor. This should be a great matchup that has a lot on the line, so let's get into the odds.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Tuesday's game.
MLB Odds: Reds-Brewers Odds
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Cincinnati Reds +1 1/2 (-120)
Milwaukee Brewers -1 1/2 (+100)
Over 7 1/2 runs (-104)
Under 7 1/2 runs (-116)
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
When the Reds win, it's usually because of the strength of their offense. The Reds rank inside the top 10 in the league in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. Cincinnati also ranks in the top five in home runs hit, RBI, and runs. This offense is clearly a lot to handle, and they should give Milwaukee starter Corbin Burnes a run for his money.
Burnes is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, but the Reds have some reason to believe that they can score off him. Cincinnati is a much better offense when facing right-handed pitching, with a rise in all of the major batting stats when facing a righty as opposed to a lefty. Burnes is also a slightly worse pitcher when he plays at home, proven by his ERA jumping from 1.87 on the road to 2.38 at American Family Field. These stats aren't much, but the Reds will take anything they can get against a Cy Young candidate like Burnes.
Cincinnati doesn't have a starter who can quite match up to Burnes, but Tyler Mahle is no slouch. The Reds starter has earned himself an ERA of 3.78 and a WHIP of 1.20. Those aren't elite numbers, but they indicate a level of pitching that should be good enough to deal with a Brewers offense that is around league average.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee's hopes in this game lie with its pitching staff, as has been the case for most of the season. Luckily for the Brewers, they get to send Corbin Burnes to the mound in this crucial contest. Burnes has posted a 2.13 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP on the season, numbers that could very well earn him Cy Young honors. Those numbers get even better when we look at his last seven starts. Over that span, Burnes has posted a 1.60 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. Hitting him has been nearly impossible, and it's fair to expect that trend to continue into this game.
Burnes has already faced the Reds this season, and it went pretty well for him. The righty nearly tossed a complete-game shutout against Cincinnati, but he was pulled in the eighth inning of the game. It would be a surprise to see the Reds put up more than three or four runs in this game.
Final Reds-Brewers Prediction & Pick
Picking against Burnes is almost never a good idea, but the Reds should be able to at least cover here. Cincinnati has a decent pitcher on the mound and an elite offense backing him up, and that should be good enough to lose by only one run.
FINAL PICK: Cincinnati Reds +1 1/2 (-120)
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