The San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies begin a four-game series on Thursday night as the Padres attempt to climb the NL West standings. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Rockies-Padres prediction and pick.
San Diego currently stands at 59-45 and is 34-20 at home. If you put $100 on every single Padres game so far this season, you’d be down $469 on the moneyline.
Colorado currently stands at 44-58 and is 11-28 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Rockies game so far this season, you’d be down $547 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Rockies-Padres odds.
MLB Odds: Rockies-Padres Odds
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Colorado Rockies ML (+233)
San Diego Padres ML (-260)
Over 8 Runs (-115)
Under 8 Runs (-105)
Why The Rockies Could Win This Game
For as bad as Kyle Freeland was to start the season, he has been much better of late.
In his last two outings, Freeland allowed only four earned runs in 13 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The biggest reason for the newfound success is control of the baseball.
After allowing 19 walks in his first 42 2/3 innings, Freeland didn't allow a walk in his previous two starts. The Rockies starter's control will be extremely important against a team that draws the third-most walks in the league.
Additionally, the Padres have struggled with lefties all year. In the last three games that opponents started a left-hander, the Padres scratched across only four runs in 17 innings against the starter. The team's batting average, OBP, and slugging all drop against lefties. We could see Freeland surprise once again against a rival in the NL West.
At the plate, Rockies batters have been surprisingly efficient on the road of late. They scored 21 runs over three games in Anaheim, led by the hot-hitting Raimel Tapia, who batted 7-for-14 in the series.
Even better news for the Rockies is the fact that their two top hitters seem to see the ball well against Joe Musgrove. Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon are 7-for-17 against Musgrove with a walk apiece.
If Freeland continues his quality pitching stretch and the Rockies don't go to their mess of a bullpen too early, we could see a massive upset in San Diego.
Why The Padres Could Win This Game
The Padres are looking to bounce back from a shelling as Sean Manaea and the Oakland Athletics shut them down for nearly the entire game. Thankfully for the Padres' high-powered offense, they get a much more hittable pitcher on the mound Thursday in Kyle Freeland.
Freeland's ERA was as high as 9.58 five outings into the season, and it's currently 4.58. The soft-tossing lefty has pitched against the Padres twice this season and was roughed up both times. In 8 2/3 innings so far against San Diego, Freeland has allowed eight earned runs.
San Diego's lineup is very familiar with Freeland, and they have over 100 plate appearances as a team against him. Wil Myers and Manny Machado have the most experience against Freeland with 25 and 23 at-bats against him, respectively. Both are hitting over .300 against him. Expect this Padres lineup to scratch across some runs early.
On the mound, Joe Musgrove will make his 21st start of the season for the Padres. Musgrove owns a 3.13 ERA and has been excellent against the Rockies, allowing only one earned run in 11 1/3 innings against them this season.
Colorado has been horrendous offensively on the road, batting only .210 away from Coors Field. Against a pitcher who has only allowed 28 walks in 110 innings, it's tough to see how the Rockies will produce many runs in this game.
Musgrove should continue to dominate Colorado. Expect five quality innings at minimum from the Padres starter before he hands the ball to a San Diego bullpen that has been lights out.
Final Rockies-Padres Prediction & Pick
Odds are that the Padres get the best of Freeland, but at -265 on the ML and -130 on the run line, I'm hesitant to lay that kind of juice on San Diego. Instead, take the under in a matchup where we should see few runs scored early. I expect the Padres to scratch across a few runs against Freeland, but we could see a horrendous Rockies offense shut down by Musgrove and the best bullpen in the league. As long as Freeland can survive five or so innings and keep the Rockies' bullpen inactive, the under should cash fairly easily.
FINAL ROCKIES-PADRES PREDICTION: UNDER 8 RUNS (-105)
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