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MLB Odds: Twins vs. Diamondbacks prediction, odds, pick – 6/17/2022

Twins Diamondbacks Prediction, Twins Diamondbacks odds, Twins Diamondbacks pick, Twins Diamondbacks, MLB odds

The Minnesota Twins take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Diamondbacks prediction and pick.FanDuel 200
Devin Smeltzer gets the start for the Twins, while Madison Bumgarner goes to the hill for the Diamondbacks.

Devin Smeltzer has been very good for the Twins. He doesn’t get huge headlines, but he has quietly put in the work and posted a 2.38 ERA. Part of why he is going under the radar is that he hasn’t pitched a huge amount of innings just yet. He has pitched 34 innings this season, having made his first start of 2022 on May 14. Yet, once the Twins began to incorporate him into their rotation and expressed trust in him, he has delivered the goods. In his six starts, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs. He has allowed more than two runs only once. He averages 5 2/3 innings per start and allows an average of 1.5 runs. That’s a winning set of averages for a back-end rotation pitcher. If Smeltzer continues to produce at this level — he doesn’t have to produce at a higher rate — he will make the Twins very happy and give this team what it needs to win the American League Central Division.

Madison Bumgarner has a 3.50 ERA. The veteran was superb in his first seven starts of the year, posting a 1.78 ERA. Then, in his next five starts, Bumgarner ran into difficulties and watched his ERA rise to 3.64. In those five starts, Bumgarner allowed more home runs (6) than in his first seven starts (4). The home run rate went up. He allowed more hits. More precisely, he allowed seven or more in three of his five rocky starts, something he did not do in any of his first seven starts of 2022. Bumgarner lost his edge and was simply not as sharp or as overpowering. He got hitters off balance in his first seven starts, not in the next five.

In his most recent start against the Phillies on June 11, Bumgarner went five innings, giving up only one earned run (three runs total). Did that mark a measure of improvement? Yes. Does it mean he has turned the corner? We might find out in this game against the Twins, who have some very hot hitters (Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton) but can otherwise be contained.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Diamondbacks MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Twins-Diamondbacks Odds

Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+118)

Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-142)

Over: 9 (-122)

Under: 9 (+100)

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Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread

The Twins are simply a better team. They just won a series in Seattle against the Mariners after taking a series from the Tampa Bay Rays. Both teams were projected to make the playoffs before the season started. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks just lost a series to the Reds after losing a series against the Phillies. The Diamondbacks overachieved in April and early May but have struggled more in recent weeks. Devin Smeltzer is pitching better than Madison Bumgarner as well. Many elements of this matchup line up well for Minnesota.

Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread

After beating the Reds to salvage one game in this week’s series, maybe the Diamondbacks can hit the reset button. They need it. They have struggled for most of the past few weeks, losing a series to the Pittsburgh Pirates and splitting four games on the road against the Reds before losing series to both the Phillies and Reds. Their starting pitching hasn’t been as strong, which is understandable given how well Arizona pitched in the earlier part of the season. Where the D-Backs have fallen off is with their bats, but their hitters are bound to have a few bounce-back games. The seven-run outburst in the recent win over the Reds could be exactly what this team was looking for. It can carry the momentum from that game into this series opener against the Twins.

Final Twins-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick

The Twins are playing really good baseball, and the Diamondbacks are not. The Twins are a better team. Trust the higher quality from the Minnesota side.

Final Twins-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5