The Minnesota Twins take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Diamondbacks prediction and pick.
Chris Archer gets the start for the Twins, while Merrill Kelly gets the ball for the Diamondbacks on Father's Day.
Chris Archer has a 3.35 ERA. He has become very consistent — not in a dominant way, but in a very noticeable way. In five of Archer's last six starts, he has pitched four to five innings and given up exactly one run. It's not overwhelming. It's not astounding. It does, however, give the Twins a very good chance to win a ballgame. Yes, Archer isn't trusted to face an opposing team's batting order a third time, but through two rounds, he has generally been able to stay a step ahead of hitters. He forces Minnesota to go deep into its bullpen every time he pitches, but as long as he is giving up only one run per appearance, which has been the norm of the past month, the Twins will take it.
Merrill Kelly has a 3.68 ERA. He had a 1.22 ERA through his first six starts of 2022. He dazzled in April and was a central reason why the Diamondbacks were surprisingly strong in the opening month of the season. His regression over the past six weeks has been accompanied by Arizona's regression as a team. Without quality pitching, the D-Backs are in trouble, given their sputtering offense and their lack of a deep batting order. Kelly has given up at least three runs in six of his last seven starts, and he has not pitched into the seventh inning in any of those starts. He has pitched into the sixth inning in two of those seven appearances. He simply isn't fooling anyone. He is also walking more hitters. Kelly has walked 22 men in his last 42 2/3 innings. He walked only seven in his first 28 innings pitched this season. Getting the walk rate down is something he needs to do.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Diamondbacks MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Diamondbacks Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+136)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-164)
Over: 9 (-112)
Under: 9 (-108)
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Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins pounded the Diamondbacks on Saturday night. They responded well to a terrible and pancake-flat loss on Friday in the first game of this series. Minnesota is the better team. Chris Archer has clearly been pitching better than Merrill Kelly in recent weeks. The Diamondbacks, after a great first month of the season, have come crashing down to earth over the past five weeks. They have struggled to beat bad teams such as the Pirates and Reds. Their batting order just isn't very deep. When Daulton Varsho doesn't hit, they generally don't thrive on offense. That is not sustainable, and it's a great reason to pick the Twins in this game.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover the Spread
After losing big to Minnesota on Saturday, the D-Backs will be motivated to fight back. Both teams have won a blowout game in this series, which leads to the conclusion that no one really knows what to expect. Two teams have played a really bad game and a really good game this weekend in Phoenix. This feels like a volatile series as opposed to a series in which the logical, normal result — the Twins winning the series — will emerge. Chris Archer might be a solid pitcher, but his lack of endurance will catch up with him at times. The Twins have had some impressive moments this season, but they have not been overwhelmingly impressive, and their record is partly a product of playing in the weak American League Central. They're not as strong as some people might think.
Final Twins-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Archer over Kelly seems like a solid bet to make. The Diamondbacks just don't deserve the benefit of the doubt here, even though the Twins have their share of weaknesses.
Final Twins-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Twins -1.5
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