The Minnesota Twins take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Dodgers prediction and pick.
Sonny Gray goes to the mound for the Twins, while Ryan Pepiot will start for the Dodgers.
Sonny Gray has a 3.19 ERA. His last six starts paint a fascinating portrait of contradiction and inconsistency. In his last three starts before the All-Star break, Gray gave up 14 runs in 13 1/3 innings. He was terrible. Then, in his first three starts after the break, Gray has pitched 16 innings and allowed only two runs. In his most recent start, he shut out the Blue Jays in five innings of work, allowing only one hit. He handcuffed a very talented batting order. Will Gray pitch the way he has pitched coming out of the All-Star break, or will he revert to the subpar pitcher who struggled just before the All-Star break?
Ryan Pepiot has a 2.76 ERA, but that ERA is the product of very limited action with the Dodgers this year. The 24-year-old Pepiot has spent most of 2022 in the minor leagues, getting regular work and staying busy at that level of competition. The Dodgers have called him up to make spot starts when their rotation has been thinned out by injuries. Pepiot has started only once for the Dodgers since May 27. He did well in a July 5 start, but in terms of predicting how well he will do here, one shouldn't try to look into the past, at least not with a firm sense of expectation.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Dodgers Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-128)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
Ryan Pepiot has talent, and he has not been all that bad when the Dodgers have asked him to pitch, but it remains that Pepiot is not the proven, reliable starter that Julio Urias is, or which Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson have become. If there was a pitcher who was likely to stumble, and who was likely to allow the Dodgers' nine-game winning streak to get snapped, it's Pepiot. Sonny Gray has been pitching really well over his past three starts, and if he can maintain that level of form, the Twins should be able to score enough against Pepiot to grab a win and give the Dodgers a very rare loss in the summer of 2022.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Sonny Gray is a good pitcher, but even though he shut down the Blue Jays in his most recent start, he still allowed five walks. Toronto couldn't punish him for that. If Gray walks five Dodger hitters, the L.A. lineup — which is performing so well right now — is likely to make him pay a steep price. Ryan Pepiot is not in the same league as the Dodgers' best pitchers, but he has not been bad when asked to take the bump. He made a spot start on July 5 and pitched five innings against the Rockies, allowing just one run on only four hits. If he delivers that same pitching line against the Twins, the Dodgers are almost certain to win, given how well they are hitting right now.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Ryan Pepiot is a question mark hovering over this game. Yes, the Dodgers have been printing money for their bettors over the past week and a half, but with Pepiot on the bump, this is a stay-away game. If you insist on a pick, go with the Dodgers.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
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