The Minnesota Twins take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Twins Dodgers prediction and pick.
Joe Ryan will start for the Twins, while Julio Urias will take the hill for the Dodgers.
Joe Ryan has a 3.67 ERA, which certainly isn't terrible, but not as good as he or the Twins probably expected. Ryan had a 2.28 ERA for the season on May 21. He then missed three and a half weeks due to injury. Some pitchers come back stronger after an injury layoff. Ryan came back less effective. His June ERA, albeit in only three starts, was 5.74. In July, he pitched better than he did in June. He delivered three solid starts and one average outing. Entering a July 29 game against the Padres, his ERA for the year was at 2.89, which was very strong, but .61 runs higher than the May 21 number.
In that game against the Padres, before San Diego acquired Juan Soto, Ryan got destroyed. He allowed 10 runs in 4 2/3 innings. So, that 3.67 ERA is a little bloated, but mostly because of one disastrous start, and not because of a lot of mediocre starts. We should consider Ryan a three-run ERA pitcher, which isn't ace territory, but is certainly solid for a division contender.
Julio Urias has a 2.57 ERA. On July 10 against the Cubs, he got only six outs and gave up five runs. Since then, he has been lights-out. In his last four starts, all after that disaster versus Chicago, he has pitched 26 innings and allowed only three runs. One can make an argument that Tony Gonsolin is the Dodgers' best starting pitcher in 2022, but Urias is probably going to be the team's Game 1 starter in the playoffs. He is a supremely reliable pitcher who has multiple out pitches and can get hitters to chase out of the strike zone.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Twins-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Twins-Dodgers Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-111)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-120)
Why The Twins Could Cover the Spread
The Twins just split a tough four-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays. They might be just six games over .500, but they have battled good teams on relatively even terms this season. Joe Ryan certainly gives them a very good chance of winning. His ERA has been under three runs most of the year. Don't let that one horrible start in San Diego – which blew up his ERA — allow you to discount his ability in this game.
What also has to be said is that the Dodgers, who are ridiculously hot, are bound to cool off at some point. Remember: This team is 1-5 against the Pittsburgh Pirates this year. Baseball is a funny game, and it boomerangs back in your face just when you think you've figured it out.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Julio Urias is locked in. He is pitching brilliantly and consistently, and it's going to be hard for the Twins to score a lot of runs against him. Meanwhile, the Dodger trio of Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman has been playing great baseball in recent weeks. When those three guys are balling, the Dodgers simply aren't going to lose.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
If the Dodgers lose here, so be it. Los Angeles has been printing money over the past five weeks, losing only five games since July 1. The Dodgers are 33-8 in their last 41 games. Urias is dealing. The Twins' offense is inconsistent. You don't have to overthink this one.
Final Twins-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5
Follow Us
Subscribe