The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will open their weekend series on Friday night in Chicago. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Twins-White Sox prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Minnesota is 67-62, just one game behind Cleveland in the AL Central, and three games out of the final AL Wild Card spot. According to FanGraphs, Minnesota’s playoff chances sit at 43.3%, setting up for a dramatic stretch run.
Chicago has gone through hell and back this season, and is now 65-66, third place in the AL Central. FanGraphs pegs Chicago’s playoff hopes at a lowly 13.7%, which may be a bit more optimistic than anyone else is feeling. Health has been a concern for this team this season.
Here are the Twins-White Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-White Sox Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+128)
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 8.5 (-102)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota will send their ace Sonny Gray to the mound in this one. Gray was acquired this offseason for 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty, a steep price to pay. Gray has succeeded this season, with a 7-4 record, 3.04 ERA in 100.2 innings in his 20 starts. 2022 is shaping up to be Gray’s best season since 2019 when he registered a 2.87 ERA for Cincinnati. Gray’s curveball, which he throws roughly one quarter of the time, has held batters to a .179 batting average. Gray’s sinker has held batters to a .207 batting average and has accounted for 53 of his 99 strikeouts.
Minnesota’s bullpen has been decent this season, ranking 13th with a 3.75 ERA. Griffin Jax has rebounded from a brutal 2021 debut season to pitch to a 3.45 ERA in 51 appearances, including nine straight scoreless appearances. Jax has struck out 69 batters in 60 innings. The star of the bullpen has been rookie Jhoan Duran. Duran, armed with a 100+ mph fastball, has pitched to a sparkling 1.91 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 56.2 innings. Duran’s last 15 games have been even better, with a 0.61 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 14.2 innings.
Minnesota has an expensive offense, led by shortstop Carlos Correa, the highlight of their offseason. Correa has been up and down between injuries but has hit 15 home runs and 16 doubles while slashing .271/.352/.430. Correa has also provided strong defense at shortstop, something that has been a staple of his big league career. Jorge Polanco is second on the team with 16 home runs, driving in 56 runs with an impressive .346 on-base percentage. Rookie Jose Miranda has hit 13 home runs and 17 doubles, adding a .270 batting average. Gary Sanchez has taken advantage of his new digs, hitting 13 home runs with improved defense behind the plate. Luis Arraez leads the team with a .318 batting average, walking more than he has struck out. Arraez now has the power to go along with his contact skills, hitting eight home runs, 23 doubles, and a triple. Minnesota is tenth in the league with 153 home runs.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago has won two in a row, trying to climb out of the rut they have been in for most of the summer. Tonight, rookie Davis Martin will make his tenth appearance and sixth start of the season. Martin has gone 2-4 with a 4.62 ERA in the early part of his rookie season. The right-hander averages about 94 mph on his fastball, which helps to explain Martin’s 81st percentile chase rate. Martin also possesses a nasty slider, which batters have hit just .196 against, with 15 of his 28 strikeouts coming on the slider. Chicago’s bullpen has not lived up to expectations this season, ranking 22nd in the league in bullpen ERA. Still, Reynaldo Lopez has a 2.98 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 51.1 innings. Setup man Kendall Graveman has pitched to a 2.60 ERA in 54 appearances. Closer Liam Hendriks has a 3.33 ERA, with 67 strikeouts in 46 innings, saving 29 games.
Chicago’s offense is starting to come into form, as injured players are coming back slowly. Andrew Vaughn leads the team with 15 home runs and 63 RBI. Vaughn is slashing .289/.338/.460 in his second season. Jose Abreu leads the team with 30 doubles and a .308 batting average and is second with 14 home runs and 61 RBI. Luis Robert has belted 12 home runs and stolen 11 bases, hitting .300 in his 90 games this season. Gavin Sheets has blasted 12 home runs in 96 games, with 17 doubles. Outfielder AJ Pollock has hit 10 home runs and 21 doubles. Eloy Jimenez has battled injuries all season but has eight home runs in his 56 games. All told, this is a very strong lineup when all the pieces are healthy.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick
Let’s give the nod to Sonny Gray and Minnesota.
Final Twins-White Sox Prediction & Pick: Minnesota -1.5 (+128), over 8.5 (-102)