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The Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles will finish their three-game series in Baltimore on Thursday night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a White Sox-Orioles prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Chicago has endured an up and down season, going 63-61 on the season, four games out of both the division lead and the final AL Wild Card spot. Chicago has gone 12-11 in the month of August, failing to gain any ground in either race.
Baltimore has been the Cinderella story of the season, going 64-59, just two and a half games behind Seattle for the last playoff spot. Baltimore has captivated the baseball world and reenergized a fanbase that was in desperate need of something to cheer about.
Here are the White Sox-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: White Sox-Orioles Odds
Chicago White Sox: -1.5 (+142)
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-172)
Over: 8 (-120)
Under: 8 (-102)
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago is sending Lance Lynn to the mound in this one, going through a brutal season since returning from an injury. Lynn has pitched to a 5.30 ERA in his 13 starts but has struck out 75 batters in his 71.1 innings. There are some encouraging stats here though, as Lynn has walked just 3.9% of his batters. Lynn’s expected ERA is 4.08, over one full point below his actual ERA, suggesting Lynn has run into a string of bad luck. Despite averaging a full mph below his 2021 velocity, batters are still only hitting .204 against Lynn’s fastball, only .017 above his 2021 mark. More concerning is the performances of Lynn’s cutter and sinker, pitches that batters have hit .315 against.
Behind Lynn is a below-average bullpen, ranking 23rd with a 4.16 ERA. Still, setup man Kendall Graveman has pitched to a 2.58 ERA across his 51 appearances, and Reynaldo Lopez has pitched to a 3.14 ERA in 44 appearances. Closer Liam Hendriks has pitched to a 3.27 ERA, inflated by a brutal 5.02 ERA across his last 15 appearances, with 28 saves in 44 innings.
The offense is paced by long-time slugger Jose Abreu, who leads the team with 14 home runs, a .311 batting average, and 29 doubles. Andrew Vaughn has rebounded from a so-so rookie year, hitting .293 with 13 home runs and a team-leading 60 RBI. Nearly half of the baseballs that leave Vaughn’s bat are classified as hard-hit, ranking in the 92nd percentile in the league. Luis Robert has battled multiple injuries this season but has added a .304 batting average with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases. Elvis Andrus has been added to alleviate the loss of Tim Anderson but has not done much in his five games with the club. While it has been a few seasons since Andrus was an offensive threat, but is a more than capable injury replacement. As a team, Chicago has hit .260, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
Baltimore has continued their improbable season despite making some trades at the trade deadline. Gone are fan favorite Trey Mancini and breakout closer Jorge Lopez, but the success of the team has continued. Anthony Santander has picked up the slack in the absence of Mancini, hitting .259 with a team-leading 21 home runs and 68 RBI. Santander also leads the team with a .337 on-base percentage. Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins are tied for the team lead with 29 doubles. Hays has added 14 home runs and 52 RBI, while Mullins has belted 11 home runs while stealing 25 bases.
Shortstop Jorge Mateo, who before this season was on the outskirts of rosters, has hit 12 home runs and stolen a team-leading 28 bases. In addition to his newfound offense, Mateo has provided sterling defense, making himself into a legitimate Gold Glove candidate. Baltimore is sixth in the league with 223 doubles but otherwise finds themselves towards the middle of the pack in most offensive categories.
Jordan Lyles will take the ball in the series finale. Lyle has pitched to a 4.61 ERA in 25 starts, striking out 119 batters in his 138.2 innings. Lyles has walked only 7.4% of batters he has faced, slightly below his career rate. The good news is, Baltimore has one of the best bullpens in baseball, despite throwing some of the highest innings totals. Behemoth closer Felix Bautista, with his triple-digits fastball and trapdoor splitter, has pitched to a 1.68 ERA in 55 appearances. Lefty Cionel Perez has been the most impressive of the group, with a 1.66 ERA in his 51 appearances. Perez is a win for the Orioles’ scouting and player development departments, as he was claimed off waivers from Cincinnati this past November.
Final White Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick
Let’s take Baltimore, if at least for the sake of the feel-good story.
Final White Sox-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore +1.5 (-172), over 8 (-120)