The Chicago White Sox will attempt to win the four-game series against the Minnesota Twins as the AL Central rivals finish the set on Sunday at Target Field. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a White Sox-Twins prediction and pick.
The Twins ended a two-game slide against the White Sox by defeating them 6-3 on Saturday. Things started fast in the first inning when Luis Arraez blasted a solo shot to right-center field. The home run was his fifth in 2022, giving the Twins the 1-0 lead. Then, the Twins struck again in the third inning when Carlos Correa crushed a shot to deep left field. The blast was his 11th of the year, giving the Twins a 3-0 lead. Next, Minnesota piled on in the same inning when Jorge Polanco demolished a three-run bomb to right-center field. The home run was his 14th of the season, giving the Twins a commanding 6-0 lead. Minnesota never looked back on its way to victory.
The White Sox will go with Dylan Cease on the mound today. Cease is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA. Recently, Cease tossed scoreless 5 2/3 innings of work, allowing five hits, while striking out nine and walking three. He is 2-1 with a 1.08 ERA over three July starts. However, Cease has struggled against the Twins, going 1-4 with a 7.64 ERA in seven career starts against Minnesota. He tossed 5 1/3 innings in his only start against the Twins at Target Field last season, allowing six earned runs on six hits.
The Twins will go with Chris Archer on the hill. Archer is 2-3 with a 3.08 ERA over 15 starts in 2022. He last pitched on June 30, where he allowed one earned run on one hit through four innings of work. Additionally, Archer is 4-2 with a 4.27 ERA in 11 appearances (10 starts) against the Sox throughout his career.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the White Sox-Twins odds:
MLB odds: White Sox-Twins Odds
White Sox: -1.5 (+132)
Twins: +1.5 (-160)
Over: 8.5 (-104)
Under: 8.5 (-118)
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Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
The White Sox are 3-6 against the Twins following the loss. Also, they are 2-4 in six games played at Target Field. The Sox are 8-10 in games at Target Field since 2020. However, they have played better in this series due to timely offense.
Jose Abreu is 4 for 9 in the series with three RBIs and a run scored. It brings his stats up to .344 with two home runs, seven RBIs, and four runs scored over nine games against the Twins in 2022. Additionally, Luis Robert has dominated the Twins over these three games, batting 6 for 9 with one home run, five RBIs, and three runs over three games. Yoan Moncada has also hit the stuffing out of the baseball, batting 6 for 14 with six runs.
The White Sox also have had good pitching in the first two games. Lance Lynn could not get the job done last night so Chicago hopes Cease will help the Sox rebound.
The White Sox will cover the spread if they get production from Abreu, Robert, and Moncada. Likewise, they need their pitching to avoid putting them in a significant hole. The Sox are not a team that can rally from six runs down.
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins have dominated the season series but struggled in this series until last night. Everything came together as Arraez, Correa, and Polanco slugged home runs.
Arraez is 3 for 12 in the series, so the hits have not come easy for him. Correa is 4 for 12, with yesterday's two-hit game being his best recent performance. Though, he does have a modest five-game hitting streak going for him right now. Polanco is 3 for 9 in this series and looked to see the ball better yesterday.
It benefitted the Twins to get good pitching in yesterday's game. Thus, it helped them build their lead and give their starting pitcher some wiggle room. The Twins do not have a great pitching staff so anything that helps them gain confidence can only benefit them in the long run.
The Twins will cover the spread if their hitters can pound the baseball again. Moreover, they need a good balance of hitting and pitching to lead the way. Minnesota will need to produce to earn the split.
Final White Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Sox will try and enter the break with a series win over the Twins. However, the runs are where the pick is at. Cease and Archer can both go deep in this one, and this could turn into a sneaky pitcher's duel. Go with the under and expect a 4-3 game.
Final White Sox-Twins Prediction & Pick: Over: 8.5 (-104)
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