The New York Yankees will take on the Houston Astros on Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Yankees-Astros prediction and pick.
This game will easily be the most entertaining contest on Thursday night. The Yankees enter this game as the best team in the MLB, sporting a 56-20 record and a 13-game lead in the AL East. The Astros can't compare with New York's record, but unsurprisingly, they also come into this game as one of the better teams in the MLB. Houston has dominated their division with a 47-27 record, a record that has given them a stranglehold on the AL West. A battle between division leaders always makes for an interesting matchup, and this game is no exception. Let's cut to the chase and get straight into the pick.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Astros MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Astros Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+132)
Houston Astros: +1.5 (-160)
Over: 7.5 (-110)
Under: 7.5 (-110)
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Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees will put Luis Severino on the mound in this contest. Severino has been one of the more reliable pitchers in the league, putting up a 3.38 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP on the season. Those numbers are already pretty good, but they improve over Severino's last seven starts. During that span, the righty has earned a 2.91 ERA and a .90 WHIP. That improvement hasn't come against easy competition, as Severino faced the Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays, the Chicago White Sox, and the Astros in that span. Severino is clearly in the middle of a hot streak, and there's no reason to think that he'll slow down in this contest.
The Yankees will face Houston pitcher Luis Garcia in this matchup. Garcia has been good for most of the year, but his last seven starts have been less than inspiring. Over that span, Garcia's ERA has risen from 3.68 to 4.34, while his WHIP rose from 1.07 to 1.18. In his most recent outing, the New York Mets tagged Garcia for six hits and three runs over five innings of work. A similar offensive output is certainly possible for the Yankees here.
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
While Severino has been extremely reliable this season, the Astros have a great history against him. There are five hitters in the Houston lineup that own a career batting average of .250 or higher against Severino. The last time they faced the Yankees starter, the Astros put up three runs and five hits over six innings. That's not a fantastic offensive output, but it's a pretty solid one. It wouldn't be a surprise to see the Astros surpass that output in this game.
The Astros will benefit from playing on their home field here. Severino has been a far worse pitcher whenever he plays on the road, as he's put up a 4.61 ERA away from home. The Astros are also far better offensively when they play at Minute Maid Park. They see a jump in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, OPS, and most other major batting stats on their home turf. That's a huge benefit to an Astros team that isn't particularly strong offensively.
Final Yankees-Astros Prediction & Pick
This game will be a close one. The under is at play here, but picking Houston to cover is the right decision. Lock in the Astros to keep this game close.
Final Yankees-Astros Prediction & Pick: Houston Astros: +1.5 (-160)
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