The New York Yankees take on the Oakland Athletics. Check out our MLB odds series for our Yankees Athletics prediction and pick.
Jameson Taillon goes to the bump for the Yankees, while James Kaprielian gets the call for the Athletics.
Jameson Taillon had a 2.30 ERA at the start of June. His ERA was still 2.70 on June 22. However, since the Astros ripped him for six runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings on June 23, he simply hasn't been the same pitcher who was so good in April and May. His ERA is now 4.00, and he has struggled to find his footing after the All-Star break. He did have a very strong outing against the Royals on July 28, but that was the Royals. He did produce a solid start against the Mariners on Aug. 8, allowing only three hits in seven innings, but for the most part, opponents are able to score three or four runs in five to seven innings against Taillon these days. He has been a lot more vulnerable to the gopher ball since his slide began. That's the main problem he has to fix. He allowed only six homers through June 22, then 14 since that disastrous start against the Astros on June 23.
James Kaprielian's 4.29 ERA is slightly worse than Taillon's, but Kaprielian has traveled the exact opposite path compared to Taillon this season. Whereas Taillon roared out of the gate in April and May, Kaprielian was a six-run ERA pitcher in his first two months with the A's in May and June (he didn't pitch for the team in April; his first start was on May 1). In July, though, he posted a 1.93 ERA for that month. Through four starts in August, he has a 3.48 ERA for the month.
If Taillon's season began to go south on June 23, Kaprielian's season began to go north at the same time. June 15 marked the last time this season in which Kaprielian allowed more than three earned runs in any start. He improved on June 21 and has remained a very steady part of the Oakland rotation since then.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Athletics MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Athletics Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (-126)
Oakland Athletics: +1.5 (+105)
Over: 7.5 (-104)
Under: 7.5 (-118)
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees have certainly sorted out their wobbly pitching. They aren't hitting particularly well just yet, but they have held the Blue Jays and Mets under three runs in three consecutive games, scoring three 4-2 victories to get their season back on track. Jameson Taillon is a better pitcher than James Kaprielian, but more than that, the Yankee bats are due for a breakout game. There are too many weapons (even with injuries) for this lineup to remain so quiet for so long. New York is an elite team, and Oakland might have the worst team in the American League.
Why The Athletics Could Cover the Spread
If you recall when the A's visited Yankee Stadium months ago — when the Yankees were riding high — those games were tough games. Oakland led in two of those games. The third was a tense 2-1 game. If this is a one-run game, Oakland covers. Add to this the fact that Jameson Taillon is not in top form, while James Kaprielian is pitching really well, generally better than Taillon at the moment. This could certainly turn Oakland's way, even though we know the Yankees are a much better team. Always remember that the Pirates are 5-1 against the Dodgers this year.
Final Yankees-Athletics Prediction & Pick
If you want to stay away from this game because Taillon is not sharp and Kaprielian is pitching well, that's a logical response to this game. If you want to pick the Yankees because they're feeling good about themselves again, that's logical, too. You could also wait two or three innings and then live-bet the game if you have a better feel for it.
Final Yankees-Athletics Prediction & Pick: Yankees -1.5
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