The New York Yankees take on the Texas Rangers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Yankees Rangers prediction and pick.
Luis Severino takes the ball for the Yankees, while Martin Perez gets the start for the Rangers.
Luis Severino got injured in a July 13 appearance for the Yankees. This is part of why the Jordan Montgomery trade at the deadline was so perplexing from Brian Cashman, New York's general manager. The Yankees dealt a valuable arm precisely when their rotation became thinner. Severino missed more than two whole months. He came back to the team and the starting rotation in the second half of September. He has pitched nine innings, giving up three runs in two outings against the Blue Jays and Pirates. He pitched five innings in one game, four in another. He will probably not start in the American League Division Series next week, with Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes possibly starting four of the five games in that series, but he can certainly be a valuable middle-relief man for this team, and that's what this start against the Rangers is for: sharpening his form and his mechanics before the playoffs.
Martin Perez concludes a fantastic season for the Rangers. He has been the team's ace throughout the season. With the Rangers badly needing more bullpen help and another few bats in the lower half of the order for 2023, Perez is the centerpiece this organization can build around. The Rangers did not give him up at the trade deadline. They clearly want to keep him and see if they can make a run at the wild card next season. If the Rangers are buried in the standings again next July, you might see Perez get dealt, but until then, he's probably going to be part of Texas's plans for the future. The shape of the first three months of the 2023 MLB season will be important in determining Perez's next step as a starting pitcher.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Yankees-Rangers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Yankees-Rangers Odds
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+106)
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-128)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
Why The Yankees Could Cover the Spread
The Yankees, as a team and as a collection of individuals, want to see Aaron Judge hit home run No. 62. The odds of that happening increase if the Yankees can give Judge five or more plate appearances each game. When they don't hit well — as was the case on Sunday — Judge won't get that extra plate appearance in a game. This team has motivation to play hard as long as Judge hasn't yet hit 62. The team doesn't need to win this game relative to its playoff position, but it will want to play hard for Judge, and to help him break the American League home run record. That's the reason to take the Yankees here.
Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
With Martin Perez making the final start of his superb 2022 season, the Rangers have their best pitcher on the mound. He can certainly handcuff a Yankee batting order which has generally struggled at the plate in recent games. The Yankees have had an occasional good game, but for the most part, the past few weeks have not been especially productive for this team, which is waiting for the playoffs and for Matt Carpenter to rejoin the lineup. The Rangers, meanwhile, want to make a statement heading into the offseason. Guys are playing for job security. They have reason to go all-out and compete.
Final Yankees-Rangers Prediction & Pick
The fact that the Yankees don't need this game for playoff positioning makes it really hard to lay a bet on what will happen. These final games of the baseball season are coin flips in that regard. Stay away, but if you insist on a pick, the Rangers with Perez are the better choice.
Final Yankees-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Rangers +1.5