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The Boston Red Sox have the best record in baseball. They can be found atop numerous power rankings. But are they really the “best” team in the sport thus far?
Boston had reason for optimism entering the 2021 campaign. Alex Cora was brought back as manager following a one-year suspension for his role in the Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Cora played a big role in the clubhouse during the Red Sox's 2018 championship season, and he figured to have a positive impact on the players in his return to the bench.
Additionally, the Red Sox had one of the best offenses in baseball. Boston ranked third in the American League in OPS in 2020 despite a poor showing from J.D. Martinez. The upside was there, with president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom supplementing the roster by adding versatile types like Enrique Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez in the offseason.
Indeed, the Red Sox have powered their way to the top of the AL East thus far. Still, looks can be deceiving, and this is a team with some pretty apparent issues.
Let's dissect Boston's start and break down why the Red Sox could falter if they fail to make some changes ahead of the July trade deadline.
Pitching staff leaves something to be desired
Pithing was a major question mark for the Red Sox this past offseason. That is still the case nearly 25 percent of the way through the 2021 campaign.
There have been positives, to be sure. Nick Pivetta has displayed pretty good stuff since he was acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in last year's Brandon Workman trade. Left-hander Martin Perez has kept the team in games and has been a serviceable back-end starter. Eduardo Rodriguez is inducing soft contact and has strong peripherals.
Yet, there is plenty of reason for skepticism as far as the rotation is concerned.
Garrett Richards has rebounded nicely since a shaky start to the season. He also has a 1.46 WHIP and has produced mixed results limiting baserunners. Nathan Eovaldi has had a really tough time as of late. He gave up seven hits and five runs to a lackluster Detroit Tigers offense in a May 6 start and has given up at least four or more runs in three of his last four outings.
Additionally, while guys like Perez and Pivetta have been effective, they don't always go deep into games. This notion especially could eventually result in more pressure in Boston's bullpen.
Now, that bullpen has been pretty strong early. That unit ranks fifth in xFIP. Matt Barnes, Garrett Whitlock and Phillips Valdez have been especially good. But there are still questions in the middle innings.
Both Adam Ottavino and Darwinzon Hernandez have dealt with command issues. Matt Andriese has a 1.62 WHIP. Josh Taylor has looked dominant at times and totally ineffective at others. Hirokazu Sawamura has been victimized by the home run ball.
Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic wrote about Cora's reliance on a deep bullpen. But that depth will continue to be tested so long as starters cannot go past the fifth or sixth innings. Remember, relievers are as volatile as any other position in the sport.
The eventual return of Chris Sale to the rotation should help matters. Still, it's worth monitoring especially how Boston's bullpen arms handle the heavy workload as the season progresses. The Red Sox seem likely candidates to add some arms at the deadline.
Top-heavy offensively
On paper, the Red Sox are once again an offensive juggernaut.
Boston ranks first in the AL in both OPS and runs scored. The high-powered attack has given Cora's team an advantage with the pitching staff holding its own early. Still, it's hard to ignore how top-heavy the Red Sox lineup has been.
The No. 2 through No. 5 hitters are the most dangerous quartet in baseball. J.D. Martinez (1.073 OPS) has been galvanized by the return of in-game video. Xander Bogaerts has probably been the best offensive shortstop in baseball. Indeed, he ranks first among qualifiers in fWAR and wRC+. Rafael Devers has a .926 OPS, while Alex Verdugo is hitting .297 with an .813 OPS.
But, where is the rest of the production coming from? Hunter Renfroe has begun to heat up a bit, but still has a .652 OPS. Franchy Cordero has a .428 OPS. Rookie first baseman Bobby Dalbec mashed everything in sight during spring training, but has a .558 OPS to begin the year. Christian Vazquez is hitting .275, but his OPS is nearly 100 points lower than it was in 2020.
The depth is being tested, as well. Both Hernandez and Christian Arroyo are on the IL. Gonzalez has a .634 OPS.
Boston's four best hitters are consistently driving the team's success. That's not necessarily the worst thing, but it feels like the Red Sox could use more top-to-bottom production, especially in the outfield and first base.
Red Sox truly among the best in the bigs?
The Red Sox have one of the best run differentials in baseball. That's usually a good indicator of success. They are also 6-3 in one-run games.
Still, it's quite early, and Boston's depth might not be quite as projectable as a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres. Heck, the San Francisco Giants have attained early success mostly because of depth.
The Red Sox have proven they can win. However, Boston has a ways to go yet before proving it truly deserves to be among the top World Series contenders.
