Will any pitchers upset Paul Skenes for NL Cy Young?

Paul Skenes burst onto the scene for the Pittsburgh Pirates halfway through the 2024 Major League Baseball season. With the 2025 regular season coming to a close, Skenes' dominance on the mound has him as the favorite for the National League Cy Young Award. However, contenders like Cristopher Sanchez and Freddy Peralta are looming with less than two weeks left.

The Pirates' struggles have defined their season this year. Pittsburgh moved on from its manager early but never recovered from a disastrous start. However, Skenes is the one of the only players on the roster who were unaffected by the constant turmoil. He has a .500 record, but the rest of his numbers have him head and shoulders above almost any other pitcher in the major leagues.

In the modern era, a pitcher's individual success has meant more than their record or how their team finishes in the standings. Despite that, 2025's NL Cy Young Award race is an interesting though exercise. If Skenes wins the award, he would be the first to do so on a team that missed the playoffs since Roger Clemens did it in 2004. There is precedence, but it is very rare.

Even though his team has been one of MLB's biggest let downs, Skenes has been elite. The Pirates' ace started in the All-Star Game for the NL, cementing his place as the league's most popular pitcher. Unfortunately, his image among baseball fans doesn't help him in award races. Sanchez and Peralta have a distinct advantage when it comes to their records and spots in the standings.

Earlier this season, Skenes was a no-brainer to win. However, dominant stretches from Sanchez and Peralta have extended the race. We took a look at the numbers to see if Skenes is still deserves to win.

Sanchez's impact on the Phillies makes him a worthy challenger

Sanchez set records for the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this season and has not slowed down since. While any pitcher would look good on the Phillies because of their offense, the 28-year-old's numbers would translate everywhere. He had to step into a much bigger role for Rob Thomson when Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler suffered injuries and missed time for Philadelphia.

The southpaw is 13-5 with a 2.66 ERA so far this season. In most other seasons, those would be good enough to win the Cy Young without much of an argument. Unfortunately for him, he is locked into a tight competition with Skenes. The latter has a better ERA and more strikeouts, though. Picking between the two comes down to a lot of splitting hairs.

Peralta's numbers are among the league's best as well, but the fact that he plays for the Milwaukee Brewers inflates his numbers, especially his record. Luckily for Skenes, MLB pitchers are not tied directly to their wins and losses. However, it does play a factor when voters try to determine where to lean when picking between a lot of deserving candidates.

Sanchez deserves a chance to take Skenes down to the wire in the Cy Young Award race in the NL. However, he needs to be elite in his final start of the season to make one last push for the award.

Verdict: the NL Cy Young is Paul Skenes' to lose

Skenes and the Pirates are playing with house money for the rest of the regular season. Despite missing the playoffs, Pittsburgh has a lot to feel good about, especially when it comes to its pitching staff. The team's ace is arguably the best in all of baseball and should win the first NL Cy Young Award of his career. The only question is whether or not his team will give him another start.

The Pirates did not let Skenes throw his normal amount of pitches in his last start. He has one more before the end of the regular season, giving fans one more chance to go see the ace. At this point, it would take a historically bad performance for him to lose his stranglehold on the award. While some would complain about his team, Skenes can only control his individual production.

The Pirates' star had to deal with trade requests and a ton of drama throughout the regular season. Despite all of the outside noise, Skenes proved that his success in 2024 was no fluke. Despite excellent seasons from Sanchez and Peralta, their late pushes to catch him have come up short. Skenes deserves to win the NL Cy Young Award and should do so with a majority of the votes.