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Rumors have been circulating recently that the San Diego Padres are willing to deal superstar Juan Soto, and that the New York Yankees have engaged them to take the temperature of their willingness to trade him and their asking price.
While Soto is certainly a great player and could potentially be a worthwhile blockbuster trade target, there would be some major risks. Here's why the Yankees might not pull the trigger on such a deal.
Juan Soto will be a one-year rental, and it is unlikely that he signs an extension
As a Scott Boras client and a premier player in the big leagues, Soto is in line for a record-breaking contract. He previously turned down a reported $440 million extension from the Washington Nationals. If he was willing to pass on that level of financial security, why accept anything similar so close to free agency, when many teams will be bidding for his services, driving the price up?
Sure, every player has a price where they would agree to an extension, but for a player of Soto’s caliber it would likely require a clear overpay, even by his standards. We’re likely talking a floor north of $500 million, and in reality probably closer to $600 million to convince him to sign on the dotted line when he is just a year away from free agency.
Trading for Soto now would likely require giving up too many assets and would possibly create more holes than it would fill
At a minimum, the Padres would likely require Drew Thorpe and Spencer Jones as a starting point for negotiations. Anything less than that, and Brian Cashman would likely hear laughing before the phone hangs up with a slam.
Additionally, they would also probably demand Jasson Dominguez or Anthony Volpe, and probably both. If I was AJ Preller, at the bare minimum I’d demand two of the following three players: Dominguez, Volpe or Oswald Peraza.
The problem for the Yankees is that this instantly creates two holes for the team. They are currently relying on Dominguez to be their center fielder or left fielder of the future, Volpe to be their shortstop of the future, and potentially (at least in this writer’s mind, the correct decision) for Peraza to be the third baseman of the future.
The Yankees are also expecting Spencer Jones to be an offensive cornerstone in the outfield going forward, and Jones would be even more essential to their future plans if Dominguez is to be traded.
If San Diego demands both young outfielders and refuses to budge, then Cashman would be better off hanging up the phone and just waiting for next offseason to sign Soto for cash in free agency.
The Yankees aren’t likely to compete next season, with or without Juan Soto
The Yankees have too many holes to fill, and are relying on rookies or second-year players to fill most of these holes. These young players are going to require time to develop, and they likely won’t be able to contribute enough this season to make the Yankees a true contender.
Given that, there is little to no logic in giving up assets that will be key to the next great Yankees team for one extra year of Soto in a season where there are low expectations of success to begin with.
The asking price may simply be too high
Despite the fact that Soto will in all likelihood be a one-year rental, he is still one of the best players in all of baseball. In reality, he can be reasonably considered a top-five player in all of baseball.
Because the Padres would still have an opportunity to deal Soto at the trade deadline if they don’t feel they can (or want to) re-sign him and get something in return for their star, they have some leverage at this time and don’t have to let themselves get pressured into accepting a deal they feel would result in them being lowballed.
Similarly, the Yankees have leverage due to their financial might and Soto being only a year away from free agency, and they shouldn’t feel pressured to give up an arm and a leg for him.
This may very well turn out to be a situation where it just doesn’t work out because both teams have enough leverage not to budge from their respective positions.
The bottom line
Juan Soto should absolutely be a part of the next great Yankees team, but that team doesn’t begin this upcoming season. Many of the assets the Yankees would likely be required to give up in order to acquire Soto are also the same players they will be relying upon to fill other holes as part of their next great roster.
