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The 2025 Major League Baseball Home Run Derby is All-Star's marquee event. However, this year's edition of the competition is not as star-studded as it used to be. Big names like Cal Raleigh and Ronald Acuna Jr. will participate in the derby, but sluggers like Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are sitting out. The lack of a clear #1 has resulted in an intriguing favorite to win; Oneil Cruz.
The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder is currently a +350 favorite to win the derby, according to FanDuel. Raleigh and Acuna Jr., who is performing in front of his home crowd, fill out the top three. Cruz being the favorite is a surprise, but the numbers suggest that it is not so crazy. Cruz and Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton hit baseballs harder than anyone else, giving them an advantage.
Raleigh is on his way to breaking records this season and Acuna Jr. will start in the All-Star Game alongside him. However, both players might be more focused on the game rather than the Home Run Derby. That, combined with Cruz's power, could pave the way for the Pirates star to steal the win.
The bracket for the derby is not set until a few days before the event happens. However, Cruz will be somewhere in the middle based on the 16 home runs he has hit so far this season. From a casual fan's perspective, the favorites to win should be Acuna Jr. and Raleigh. Sports books disagree, favoring the 6'7″ stud instead.
Cruz's efforts have been overshadowed by how bad the Pirates have been this season. His decision to participate in the Home Run Derby gives Pittsburgh two representatives at the All-Star festivities. He joins Paul Skenes, the Pirates' lone All-Star.
With trade rumors swirling around Cruz's teammates ahead of the trade deadline, he has a chance to send a message at the derby. If he wins, he will have pulled off an upset, even if FanDuel thinks he is the favorite to walk away as the champion.
