2025 cannot be viewed as anything other than a successful year for the Toronto Blue Jays. There weren't too many high expectations for them coming into the 2025 season after a lot of their core players underperformed last year, but they have managed to play much better this season — even looking the part of a legitimate World Series contender.

At present, the Blue Jays have the best record in the American League at 89-62, and they are well on their way to winning the AL East crown — a major achievement for a team that has only won the division title five times in its 49-year history. The last time Toronto won the division was in 2015, when their playoff run heartbreakingly came to an end in the ALCS against the eventual champion Kansas City Royals.

But since then, the MLB has introduced a lot of changes to the playoff format. The most notable change is that every season, six teams from each league end up making the postseason, with the two top teams receiving a bye straight to the Division Series.

If the Blue Jays manage to keep up the pace they're currently in, they will be bypassing the Wild Card round entirely, and if the current standings hold up, they will be awaiting the winner of the 4-5 matchup (New York Yankees against the Houston Astros) in the Division Series.

There will not be a playoff matchup in which the Blue Jays won't be favored. Their position player depth is incredible, and their pitching can get it done even though they don't exactly have an elite pitcher anchoring the rotation.

But some scenarios are more unfavorable towards the Blue Jays than others. Here is the Blue Jays' nightmare scenario for the 2025 MLB playoffs.

Blue Jays draw the Yankees in the ALDS

Sep 5, 2025; Bronx, New York, USA; Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa (7) puts the home run jacket on first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) after Guerrero hit a solo home run the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Yankee Stadium.
Brad Penner-Imagn Images

It's quite unfair that the prize for the Blue Jays (if current circumstances hold up) is a matchup against either the Yankees or Astros, two teams that have plenty of postseason experience. The Astros won the World Series as recently as 2022, while the Yankees made it to the Fall Classic last year before succumbing to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Those two teams know what it takes to mount a deep playoff run. Now, this is not to say that the Blue Jays don't have what it takes. They have veterans who've been there and done that in the resurgent George Springer and the steady hand in Max Scherzer, but this core group they have, quite literally, has not won a playoff game.

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The Blue Jays made it to the playoffs in 2020, 2022, and 2023 and were swept in the Wild Card round. They surely have grown since then, but the experience deficit could end up mattering when the lights are at their brightest, especially when the margins between the teams are this thin.

But if anything, the Blue Jays would want to draw the Astros instead of the Yankees. The Astros will be without Yordan Alvarez, their best hitter, “for a while” according to reports, and that would give the Blue Jays' pitching staff, which ranks 19th in team ERA, one fewer headache to deal with.

The Astros' strength lies more in the team's defense and run prevention, but considering how well the Blue Jays have hit all season long (they rank third in team OPS, at .769), they should be able to handle Houston's pitching staff quite well.

On the other hand, the Yankees' offense is literally the best in MLB; they rank first in total runs scored, with 784, and they rank first in team OPS, at .782. Their offense is as explosive as it gets; they lead the league in home runs, with 255, and they can be dominant and difficult to deal with as a result.

While the Yankees' pitching staff has its fair share of question marks, and their bullpen definitely can be a weak spot, can the Blue Jays keep up with the rare team that can match their incredible display of offense?

The good news is that the Yankees have tended to struggle on the defensive side of the ball whenever the two sides play at Rogers Centre. Anthony Volpe will have to be hard at work at cleaning up his throwing yips.

Toronto won six out of seven games against New York at home this season, and that should bode well for a potential ALDS matchup. But considering present circumstances, this is the matchup Toronto would want to avoid. But at the very least, they control their own fate, and it looks like their playoff run will not be coming to an end in the Wild Card round like it did during their three previous postseason appearances.