We’re back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 304 as the Prelims kick-off with this next bout in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. Lithuania’s own Modestas Bukauskas will return against Poland’s Marcin Prachnio in a can’t miss matchup between skilled strikers. Check out our UFC odds series for our Bukauskas-Prachnio prediction and pick.
Modestas Bukauskas (15-6) has gone 3-4 in his UFC runs since 2020. He’s a former 7-1 champ at Cage Warriors, so he’ll be fighting in front of a familiar English crowd in this one. Following a recent KO-loss to contender Vitor Petrino, Bukauskas is looking to even his record as he looks to get back into the win column on Saturday. Bukauskas stands 6’3″ with a 76-inch reach.
Marcin Prachnio (17-7) comes into this fight with a 4-5 UFC record since 2018. Following a rocky three-fight skid to open his tenure, he’s managed to go 4-2 in his last six fights and most recently got the unanimous decision victory over Devin Clark. Now, he stands to make a name for himself by taking out one of his toughest opponents to date. Prachnio stands 6’3″ with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 304 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 304 Odds: Modestas Bukauskas-Marcin Prachnio Odds
Modestas Bukauskas: -150
Marcin Prachnio: +130
Over 2.5 rounds: -170
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Modestas Bukauskas Will Win
Following his tough knee injury to Khalil Rountree Jr., Modestas Bukauskas was able to reel four-straight victories and place himself right on the cusp of a top-15 ranking in the division. His last loss to Vitor Petrino was also a tough one as he stood to take out the hungriest new competitor in the division. Instead, Bukauskas will now have to defend his position against a game Marcin Prachnio coming off a win. Still, Bukauskas is the better fighter here skill-wise and we should see an opportunity for him to open some of his striking up against Prachnio.
Modestas Bukauskas will have the comfort of knowing he’s a much more active fighter than his opponent and if he’s able to find a consistent output, he should be able to land the more frequent strikes. His power is much greater than his opponents and he’s the much better athlete in this situation, so expect him to be quick in his movements as he sticks his jab out and does damage. Bukauskas has seen more action in the grappling, so expect him to have the advantage in that department as well.
Why Marcin Prachnio Will Win
Marcin Prachnio has been up-and-down over the last few years, but his last win over Devin Clark was easily the best showing of his UFC stint thus far. He was able to utilize his reach in the last contest and force Devin Clark to fight within his range. When faced with the takedowns, Prachnio did an amazing job of stuffing each one and effectively tiring his opponent out. From there, he’s been great at keeping opponents at the end of his punches and landing enough damage to keep them within his range.
Prachnio will have to have another perfect performance in this fight if he wants to keep Bukauskas on the feet and guessing. I don’t expect him to go for too many level changes throughout this one, but Prachnio has been very diligent about attacking his opponents’ legs early into the fight. If he’s able to key-in on the legs of Bukauskas early into this one, he could see a string of success heading into the later rounds. From there, he’ll have to control distance and keep Bukauskas away with his consistent jab.
Final Modestas Bukauskas-Marcin Prachnio Prediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight to open the Prelims portion of the PPV and both men are seeking a crucial win in this scenario. Modestas Bukauskas is the better athlete here and we have to give him the edge in terms of MMA skills. However, Marcin Prachnio has been dialing-in his game and we saw the best version of him in his most recent win.
Marcin Prachnio will have success throughout this fight if he’s able to attack the legs of Bukauskas early and hinder his movement around the octagon. Prachnio is very awkward in his own movements, so sticking his jab and slipping out of range could be a good strategy if he sees success with the leg kicks.
However, we have to roll with Modestas Bukauskas to get the win here simply due to his skill set and ability to telegraph opponents’ shots. He ran into a brick wall in Vitor Petrino during his last fight, but he’s poised for a comeback performance in this one and I expect an emphatic knockout from him over Prachnio.
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Final Modestas Bukauskas-Marcin Prachnio Prediction & Pick: Modestas Bukauskas (-150)
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