The Fresno State Bulldogs take on the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Championship Game. Check out our Mountain West Championship odds series for our Fresno State Boise State prediction and pick.

The Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos have been here before, playing each other in the Mountain West Championship Game. They did so in 2014, 2017, and 2018, with Boise State winning two of the three meetings. A lot has changed since the 2018 clash. Fresno State head coach Jeff Tedford stepped away from coaching but has since returned to the Bulldogs. Boise State's coach four seasons ago was Bryan Harsin, who went to Auburn and completely failed. Andy Avalos is now Boise State's head coach. He has an interim offensive coordinator, former Boise State head coach Dirk Koetter. It was 24 years ago, in 1998, when Koetter became Boise State's head coach. He briefly guided the Broncos before taking the head coaching position at Arizona State. Koetter then had multiple NFL offensive coordinator jobs before becoming the head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He failed at that job, then went to the Atlanta Falcons as offensive coordinator before coming back to Boise as an offensive analyst, someone with a peripheral and limited involvement on staff. He didn't intend to be offensive coordinator, but after the Broncos imploded earlier in the season — marked by a humiliating loss to UTEP — Avalos changed the staff around and asked Koetter to step in. Koetter agreed, but only on a temporary basis. He will not be the offensive coordinator of the team next year, which lends extra urgency to this moment for Boise State.

The other really big storyline of this game is that it is likely the last game for Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener, the tough and resilient but often-injured quarterback whose absence earlier in the year caused the Bulldogs to lose a few games they otherwise would have won. Haener and Tedford will complete a very emotional journey in this game. They hope to make the moment count against a foremost Mountain West competitor and obstacle.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Fresno State-Boise State Mountain West Championship odds.

Mountain West Championship Odds: Fresno State-USC Odds

Fresno State Bulldogs: +3.5 (-122)

Boise State Broncos: -3.5 (+100)

Over: 54.5 (-108)

Under: 54.5 (-112)

Why Fresno State Could Cover the Spread

Jake Haener is not a competitor you generally want to bet against. His experience and toughness, having been through so many challenges over the years, is a big advantage for Fresno State in a championship game. Tedford has also been around the block several times and should be able to give Haener a winning plan against a Boise State defense which has been very good in 2022, but which has not faced many very good quarterbacks. Fresno State can give Boise State something the Broncos haven't seen much of this year: good passing from a reliable thrower.

Why Boise State Could Cover the Spread

Boise State's defense is ready for the Jake Haener challenge. What also needs to be said is that since Dirk Koetter took over the offense, the Broncos have been much better on that side of the ball. The Broncos have unlocked the talents of dual-threat quarterback Taylen Green. His speed is an ingredient Fresno State might not be able to fully account for in this game. It's also something Haener doesn't have.

Final Fresno State-Boise State Prediction & Pick

If this game goes down to the wire — which it very well might — being able to get Fresno State plus 3.5 points means the Bulldogs can lose by a field goal and still cover. If the number goes down to 2.5, stay away, but that one extra point feels like something worthy of a play.

Final Fresno State-Boise State Prediction & Pick: Fresno State +3.5