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It is a Conference USA battle as MTSU visits Liberty. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with an MTSU-Liberty prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
MTSU and Liberty entered the season as two of the top three favorites to win the conference. Things have gone according to plan for Liberty, but not MTSU. MTSU is just 2-5 on the season. They opened with losses to Alabama and Missouri and then got a win over Murray State. They then struggled against Colorado State, Western Kentucky, and Jacksonville State. At 0-2 in conference play, they faced Louisiana Tech last week. MTSU had a 17-9 lead at the half and would hold onto that lead, winning 31-23.
Meanwhile, Liberty enters the game at 6-0 on the season. They started with a win over Bowling Green, and then started conference play with a game against New Mexico State. It was another victory, before their second non-conference game of the season. That was a win over Buffalo. They dominated FIU in the next week before their first close game of the season. Liberty's closest game of the year was Sam Houston, as they won 21-16. Last week it was domination. Liberty would be down 7-0 to Jacksonville State in the first quarter but have it tied at halftime. In the second half, Liberty would put up 21 points while holding Jacksonville State to three, and win 31-13.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: MTSU-Liberty Odds
MTSU: +13.5 (-104)
Liberty: -13.5 (-118)
Over: 54.5 (-110)
Under: 54.5 (-110)
How to Watch MTSU vs. Liberty Week 7
Time: 7:00 PM ET/ 4:00 PM PT
TV: CBS Sports Network
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why MTSU Will Cover The Spread
The offense is led by Nicholas Vattiato at quarterback, who currently sits 19th in FBS in passing yards this year. He is 177-258 passing this year for 1.824 yards and 11 touchdowns. The 11 passing touchdowns also ran tied for 47th in FBS. He has made 11 big-time throws this year according to PFF, and if it were not for drops, he could have a better completion percentage. This year Vattiato has an adjusted completion percentage of 78.6 percent due to 20 drops already. The last game was the first game he did not have to deal with multiple drops in a game. Still, he has struggled with pressure this year. Vattiato has been sacked 24 times this year on just 76 pressures. He has also thrown six interceptions this year with 10 turnover-worthy passes. Last game, he did not have one for just the second time this year.
The running game has not been the best this year. Vattiato is second on the team in rushing. He has 277 yards this year running with two touchdowns but has five fumbles. Ahead of him is Jaiden Credle, who has 314 yards this year on 58 attempts. While he is running well, with 5.4 yards per carry, the attempts have not been there for him, as MTSU often finds themselves down early in the game. Beyond Credle, Frank Peasant and Jekail Middlebrook both have two rushing touchdowns this year.
The defense for Middle Tennessee has been an issue this year. They are 82nd in the nation in total defense and 113th in red zone efficiency on defense. Part of the issue has been the pass rush. They have just 13 sacks this year with Sam Brumfield leading the way. He has two sacks this year with 16 quarterback pressures. Brumfield is the leader in the run game though. He has 17 stops for offensive failures with an average depth of tackle just 3.1 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Marley Cook has nine stops for offensive failures in the run game with an average depth of tackle just .5 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Why Liberty Will Cover The Spread
Liberty is one of the remaining 11 unbeaten teams this season. Liberty is in the top 25 in passing efficiency and points per game this year. The Flames are led by Kaidon Salter this year. He is 76-132 this season for 1,353 yards on the season with 14 touchdowns. Salter rebounded last game from two bad games. In the game with Jacksonville State, he went 12-21 passing for 177 yards with two touchdowns. He also made two big-time throws in the game but did have one turnover-worthy pass.
Salter has also been solid on the ground this year. He has 163 yards scrambling this year, with 357 total yards overall. Salter has scored six times on the ground but has three fumbles this season. Meanwhile, Quinton Cooley has 592 yards on the ground with three scores. He is averaging six yards per carry this year, with 3.63 coming after first contact. He has forced 21 missed tackles this year with 11 runs over 15 yards. Meanwhile, Billy Lucas has also scored twice on the ground this year.
Liberty has two solid receivers as well. CJ Daniels has been solid this year. He has 438 yards receiving this year with 18 receptions on 30 targets. Daniels has also scored three times this year. Treon Sibley has also been solid and great after the catch. He has brought in 16 of 20 targets for 385 yards and three scores. He has 159 yards after the catch, with an average of 9.9 yards per reception after the catch.
Liberty's defense showed up in a big way last time out. While they gave up 212 yards in the first half last week against Jacksonville State, they slowed them to just 112 yards in the second half. They had four tackles for a loss in the second half, while also forcing two interceptions. Braylan Green and Kobe Singleton have been the leaders in the pass defense this year. Green has four interceptions and four pass breakups this year. Singleton has three interceptions and four pass breakups this year.
Final MTSU-Liberty Prediction & Pick
Middle Tennessee has not won on the road yet this year. They do have a solid run defense this year but are playing against a top-quality running attack. The big issue in this game is going to be turnovers. MTSU is one of the worst in turnover differential. They turn over the ball a lot while not getting them back. Meanwhile, Liberty forces a lot of turnovers. They will do that again in this game. The biggest worry for Liberty is next week they play Western Kentucky. Liberty has to focus on this game and not look ahead to get a cover.
Final MTSU-Liberty Prediction & Pick: Liberty -13.5 (-118)
