It is their first season in Conference USA for Liberty football, as new coach Jamey Chadwell hopes to continue the Flames' success. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Liberty football win total prediction and pick.

Last year has an 8-1 start for Liberty under Hugh Freeze last year. The only loss in those games was a one-point loss to Wake Forest. Then, the wheels fell off as the rumors of Hugh Freeze leaving started to pick up. Liberty lost by three to UCONN, and then one to Virginia Tech before being destroyed 49-14 by New Mexico State.

Chadwell takes over a program that is moving from independent status to Conference USA. He has plenty of resources to work with off the field. Liberty reported over a billion dollars in revenue in 2022, and plenty of that could go to growing the football program. The offense brings back some explosive wide receivers and three solid offensive linemen. Wake Forest transfer Quinton Cooley is in the backfield. They do not have an answer at quarterback, but Chadwell took Grayson McCall from a relative unknown with few offers to a household name.

Meanwhile, the defense lost some of their best playmakers and is more of a question mark. Still, they bring back plenty of talent. Most of the players will be upperclassmen with plenty of playing experience. Liberty is only projected to be an underdog twice this season according to ESPNs FPI. Both of those games are on the road.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: Liberty Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 8.5 wins: -134

Under 8.5 wins: +110

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Why Liberty Can Win 8.5 Games 

The opening game of the season is a visit from Bowling Green. While Bowling Green has Connor Bazelak at quarterback, this offense heavily struggled last year. They lost their top wide receivers, and have a below average offensive line. On defense, they lost their two best players and put little pressure on the quarterback. Liberty will start 1-0 with a good game to get everyone's feet wet for the season.

Next is New Mexico State. Do not expect the blowout that happened last year. That Liberty team had quit on Hugh Freeze through all the rumors. This one will not be quitting on Jamey Chadwell. This defense was great last year at taking away the ball and getting to the quarterback. They will be doing that again this year. Diego Pavia is a solid quarterback, but he can throw interceptions, and he will be doing that against Liberty. Then Liberty heads to Buffalo. They finished the season with three straight losses before a victory over Akron to get to a bowl game. They are 110th in returning production and will be struggling early on in the season.

Liberty then gets to the meat of their conference schedule, with first a visit to FIU. FIU is 116th in returning production on offense, and their best back, Lexington Joseph, is already out for the year. They are also replacing a majority of their offensive line and the Liberty defense will dominate this game. Both of the next two opponents for Liberty after FIU with be the newest FBS teams in Sam Houston and Jacksonville State. Liberty also has its bye week in between.

Sam Houston has the better defense and should be able to slow down Liberty some. Still, the quarterback play was dreadful last year and players like Kobe Singleton will take advantage of that. Jacksonville State has the better offense, but with Kendy Charles and Tyren Dupree, will they be able to run the ball well enough to get a win? Even more, can the defense slow down a Jamey Chadwell offense? Most likely not and Liberty gets two more wins.

The toughest two games of the season come next. Middle Tennessee visits Liberty first, and the offense has very little punch. Their defense struggles to get to the quarterback and it is another win for Liberty. The next game could be a Conference USA title game preview. Even if they lose this game, it will not matter for the win total. Louisiana Tech, Old Dominion, UMASS, and UTEP all finish off the season. Lousiana Tech should have a solid offense this year, but will not have the defense to slow down Liberty. Old Dominion and UMASS are not quality programs at all, and Liberty will be heavy favorites. Then UTEP will have a good offense line, but nothing great around it. The defensive front of Liberty will handle that with ease, and it is a four-game winning streak to end the season.

Why Liberty Can Not Win 8.5 Games

First, this starts with Liberty not being able to figure out the quarterback position. Jonathan Bennett, Kaiden Salter and Trey Lowe are all competing for the job. Bennett and Salter were not very good last year. Lowe is now at his third school overall and has not shown much in his prior two stops. They also need to take care of the ball better. The Liberty defense bailed them out by getting turnovers, but the offense has turned it over 29 times in the last two year. Then, the defense should be solid, but can they replace Mike Smith? Smith was the leading tackler on the team and is now at Baylor.

The question comes, where are the losses? The first would be New Mexico State. Diego Pavia is a winner and can run all over the field if need be. This was a blowout last year, and while it should not be this year, if Liberty cannot score and give Pavia good field position, this will be ugly for Liberty. Next is Buffalo. Cole Snyder is a solid quarterback and threw for over 3000 yards last year. He has a great deep ball, and if the defense forces some turnovers, Snyder will make them pay.

Then there are the two other favorites in the conference Middle Tennessee is a solid team and well-balanced. If the offense can take a step forward and Liberty does not have an answer at quarterback, Liberty will lose. Western Kentucky is the best team in the conference, and they will be underdogs heavily in this game.

Finally, UTEP is a place they can lose. If Gavin Hardison has made strides by this point, the offense could take a major step forward. The defense will be better this year too, and again if Liberty does not have a quarterback, they will lose this as well.

Final Liberty Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

Liberty is primed for a solid year. Liberty starts 5-0 before the bye week and then takes out Jacksonville State after the bye. Middle Tennessee will be a close game, but Liberty has more talent. October 24th could be a match-up between two undefeated teams. Liberty walks out with their first loss of the year, but they will get another chance at the Hilltoppers. They finish the season with four more wins and it is an 11-1 season for the Flames.

Final Liberty Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Over 8.5 (-134)