The UFC makes the journey to Manchester, England as the U.K. will see some of their favorite fighters compete on the biggest combat stage in the world. We’re ready for another betting prediction and pick as we look at this ranked fight in the Flyweight (125) Division. No. 6-ranked hometown fighter Muhammad Mokaev will take on No. 8 Manel Kape of Portugal. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mokaev-Kape prediction and pick.
Muhammad Mokaev (11-0) has gone a perfect 6-0 since joining the UFC in 2022. Ending four of those bouts by submission, Mokaev continues to prove himself as one of the brightest rising stars in the organization today. He most recently beat a veteran in Alex Perez and is now eyeing a potential title shot if he can gain remain unbeaten. Mokaev stands 5’7″ with a 70-inch reach.
Manel Kape (19-6) has posted a 4-2 record in the UFC since 2021. After losing his first two fights under the promotion, he’s won four consecutive bouts and has quickly risen up the rankings. After a number of cancelled bouts due to missing weight and injury, Kape will look to leapfrog his opponent in the rankings with his fifth-straight win here. Kape stands 5’5″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 304 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 304 Odds: Muhammad Mokaev-Manel Kape Odds
Muhammad Mokaev: -150
Manel Kape: +130
Over 2.5 rounds: -200
Under 2.5 rounds: +160
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Why Muhammad Mokaev Will Win
Muhammad Mokaev faced his most difficult bout to date against former title challenger Alex Perez in his last appearance, but he once again shined in the Main Card spot and earned another step closer to the Flyweight Championship. He’s been more dominant with each passing fight and the biggest development has been his fight-IQ and decision making in the cage. At just 23 years old, his age would show early into his stint as he fights with an aura of invincibility. However, after a number of close-calls and tight finished, Mokaev has refined his game into a no-nonsense style built for finishing the fight.
Mokaev will be facing a very dangerous striker here in Manel Kape, but we’ve seen him develop his striking defense and watched as he broke down the boxing of Alex Perez. He’s relentless in finding his takedowns and lands them at 41% while securing almost six per fight. He’s taken down all of his opponent up to this point and we should see the same out of him in this one. His opponent is a solid grappler in his own right, but Mokaev knows that this is his fight to win if it becomes a jiu jitsu match. Keep an eye out as he constantly looks for the submission finish here.
Why Manel Kape Will Win
As far as his fights go, Manel Kape has been stellar over the last 3 years and has now won back-to-back unanimous decisions in convincing fashion. After a rocky start to his tenure, Manel Kape did a ton of work to dial-in the technical part of the game to compliment his god-given athleticism as a striker. He’s extremely quick with his kicks and has lightning-fast hands to match. With 11 of his wins coming by KO/TKO, he has a ton of power for this weight class and he’s very good about sealing the victory once he sees an opponent or if his opponent is hurt. Expect him to be very aggressive in landing the first big shot of this fight.
For Manel Kape to be successful here, he’ll have to be defensively-minded and work tirelessly to defend the takedowns from Mokaev. It’s almost certain that Mokaev will get Kape down at some point, but Kape can work to get up quickly and discourage his opponent from constantly chasing it. We’ve seen Mokaev dip his head a number of times as he goes for desperation takedowns – don’t be surprised if Kape can telegraph the attempt and capitalize with aggressive ground-and-pound to win the fight.
Final Muhammad Mokaev-Manel Kape Prediction & Pick
This is a very high-stakes matchup early on the fight card and we should see one of these men separate themselves as the next contender in the Flyweight Division. Muhammad Mokaev has yet to see a loss in his professional career and he’ll be looking to land the takedown all throughout this fight. Manel Kape is a capable grappler in his own right, but this fight favors Mokaev every second they spend on the mat.
Manel Kape can be successful here if he lands the bigger shots and begins to tax the chin of Mokaev. The betting odds are extremely tight, something Mokaev hasn’t seen much in his career. Expect him to face some adversity throughout this fight as Kape has his moments in the striking.
Still, we have to ride Muhammad Mokaev to win this fight on his home soil. Manel Kape is undoubtedly his most dangerous opponent and he’ll have to be diligent about not leaving his chin open when chasing the takedowns. Still, I think he lands a few early and wins this fight in a decision based on his control time.
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Final Muhammad Mokaev-Manel Kape Prediction & Pick: Muhammad Mokaev (-150); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-200)
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