Among the questions being asked about the upcoming NBA season are which players could breakout in 2023-24, an annual thought exercise that requires an in-depth look at what said player can provide in the context of their own ability, team need, and opportunity.
While the definition of ‘breakout player' could use some refinement, in this instance it simply means a player who could become a well-known and popular player due to their performance in 2023-24, whether it should match or exceed expectations.
To that point, with NBA training camp now less than a month away, the 2023-24 season and the chance to see how a summer of change will play out between the lines on the court instead of the lines on a sheet of paper feels as close as ever. That being said, as the sporting world revolves around projections, these assessments are important to those that would rather make an educated guess than enter a situation blindly.
Bol Bol (Phoenix Suns)
When the Phoenix Suns made the decision to sign a dynamic frontcourt piece in Bol Bol, it was met with plenty of fanfare because even the most casual NBA observer knows that Bol is one of the more unique players in the league. 7-foot-2 and 220 pounds, Bol is capable of handling the ball in the open court, creating plays for himself and others off-the-dribble, scoring from all three levels, and blocking shots from the paint to the perimeter (sometimes quite literally).
At 23-years-old and on a team lacking high-end depth, especially as far as the offensive end, Bol should be in prime position to have a career year. Doing so while playing for a team with the star power and championship aspirations of the Suns is what would make this upcoming season a true breakout year for Bol after he was knocking on the door of one with the Orlando Magic in 2022-23.
Obi Toppin (Indiana Pacers)
One of the worst-kept secrets in the NBA was that the New York Knicks were utilizing former eighth overall pick Obi Toppin incorrectly. At his best on his way to the rim, there weren't nearly enough transition or pick-and-roll opportunities for the 6-foot-9, 220-pound high-flyer. Instead, the Knicks homed in on his secondary offensive skill; 3-point shooting.
Over the course of his career, 45.5 percent of his field goal attempts have come from 3-point range, and he's converted 32.5 percent of those attempts. Now compare that with his efficiency inside the restricted area, as he's made 72.4 percent of his shots within three feet of the rim. Now, with a true point guard in Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers, expect Toppin to get far more shots near the tin.
Nikola Jovic (Miami Heat)
Power forward has long been an area of weakness for the Miami Heat, which is why they signed an aging Kevin Love to be their starter at the position when the Cleveland Cavaliers bought him out of his contract in February. Keep in mind that the Cavs have had a higher overall opinion of Love than any other team, as it should help highlight just how desperate the Heat have been to improve their play there.
With that being said, the solution to their problem may already be on the roster, with Nikola Jovic — a first-round pick for Miami in the 2022 NBA Draft — looking bigger, sharper and bolder than he did last season. Though he still needs to work on his consistency, at 6-foot-10 Jovic fits the increasingly popular archetype of a big man with guard skills and has two-way upside that other players at his position lack on the Heat roster. Furthermore, while the 2023 FIBA World Cup will be a great chance to see how Jovic continues to develop, it'll also have him in midseason form when other players are just getting warmed up.
Mouhamed Gueye (Atlanta Hawks)
Atlanta Hawks rookie forward-center Mouhamed Gueye already turned heads once this offseason, impressing Summer League spectators with his combination of size, fluidity, shooting touch and defensive upside. A little-known player entering the 2023 NBA Draft, one would assume that its these traits that led to the Hawks feeling comfortable with selecting Gueye just outside of the first round (No. 39 overall).
However, what makes Gueye a potential breakout candidate for the Hawks has as much to do with several other players at his position as him. For starters, Atlanta traded away John Collins, their starting power forward since the 2017-18 season. Furthermore, the Hawks have a projected rotation player in combo forward Jalen Johnson whose long-range efficiency leaves a lot to be desired. Lastly, the streaky Saddiq Bey may be better coming off the bench, as his career numbers suggest. All of which leaves room for Gueye to make a surprisingly significant impact early.
MarJon Beauchamp (Milwaukee Bucks)
Milwaukee Bucks swingman MarJon Beauchamp turned heads a week ago when he dropped 83 points in a Pro-Am game set in his hometown of Seattle. However, those in the know have been aware of what Beauchamp has been capable of for quite some time.
A first-round pick for the Bucks in the 2022 NBA Draft, the 22-year-old made a name for himself with the G League Ignite with his two-way upside. While athletic enough to defend multiple positions at 6-foot-6 and a buck under 200 pounds, Beauchamp also projected to be an off-ball threat and respectable on-ball scorer offensively. After an expectedly up-and-down rookie season, Beauchamp may now get to prove he's taken the next step in his development, especially if the Bucks do eventually move one or both of Grayson Allen or Pat Connaughton in order to shore up their point guard depth.
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