The Milwaukee Bucks travel to the Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors for a Christmas Day rematch. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Warriors prediction and pick.
The Bucks hold a record of 32-17 overall but are only 22-27 against the spread. Milwaukee is coming off a one-point victory over the Sacramento Kings.
The Warriors stand at 23-27 overall and 22-28 against the spread. The Dubs have lost three straight, with their most recent loss coming to the Atlanta Hawks.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Bucks-Warriors odds.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Warriors Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -6.5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors +6.5 (-110)
Over 237.5 Points (-110)
Under 237.5 Points (-110)
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks and the Warriors are currently trending in the opposite direction.
While the Warriors have dropped three in a row, the Bucks have won three straight, including their last matchup without the services of reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Golden State has failed to cover in seven of their last eight matchups, with the lone win coming against the Chicago Bulls.
The Bucks have been driven by their offense in their latest wins. Milwaukee's offense is currently the highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 119.2 points per game.
Giannis and company are deadly from everywhere on the floor. League-wide, they rank fourth in field goal percentage, third in three-point percentage, and 12th in points in the paint.
This matchup is especially deadly for a Warriors team that has struggled to cover the perimeter. Golden State allows opponents to shoot 36.9% from three, the 13th highest figure in the NBA.
These teams have both adopted similar run-and-gun styles, but the problem for the Warriors is that the Bucks are much better at it.
Milwaukee has five players shooting over 38% from deep on at least 3.5 attempts per game, while the Warriors only have two. This game is likely to turn in to a three-point contest, putting the advantage firmly in Milwaukee's hands.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
While the Bucks might hold a better record over the last few games than the Warriors, their against the spread records are similar. Milwaukee is only 3-7 ATS in their last ten, even though they've won seven of those games.
The Bucks have particularly struggled against larger spreads. As favorites of six or more points, Milwaukee is only 2-4 against the spread in their last ten.
The biggest key for the Warriors tonight will be getting Steph Curry going and to limit the Bucks damage done in the painted area.
Curry has been great in his last three appearances for the Warriors, averaging 35 points on 48.5% shooting from the field. The concerning number is the low (by his standards) 37.8% shooting from three.
The Warriors badly need their star to have a hot-shooting night, or they'll be out-gunned quickly by a Bucks roster full of shooters. Golden State is only 3-7 in their last appearances when Curry shoots under 50% from three.
On the defensive end, it's expected that the Warriors will bleed some points from the three-point line. Curry and company need to ensure they aren't too damaged elsewhere.
Last time these two played, the Warriors were crushed on the boards (out-rebounded 60 to 48) and allowed the Bucks to shoot 56% from the field.
Golden State's defense suggests the Bucks field goal percentage on Christmas was an anomaly. The Dubs hold opponents to the sixth lowest field goal percentage in the league.
As long as the Warriors don't get crushed in both areas, they can hang around in this game.
Final Bucks-Warriors Prediction & Pick
The Bucks excel in the one area that has killed the Warriors, and that's three-point shooting. I can't see a Warriors defense that has struggled for weeks suddenly clamp one of the best shooting teams in the NBA. I'll back the Bucks here to connect on enough three-pointers to pull out the win, and cover a spread that in my opinion, should be a few points higher.
FINAL PICK/PREDICTION: MILWAUKEE BUCKS -6.5
Follow Us
Subscribe