The Los Angeles Clippers (14-12) visit the Miami Heat (11-14) on Thursday. Action tips off at 7:40 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Clippers-Heat prediction and pick.
Los Angeles has lost two of their last three games and sits in ninth place in the Western Conference. The Clippers are 11-15 against the spread while 65% of their games have gone under. Miami has lost three of their last four games to drop them to tenth in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 8-16-1 against the spread while 52% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of two games between the teams this season. The teams split last year's series, 1-1.
Here are the Clippers-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Clippers-Heat Odds
Los Angeles Clippers: +6 (-108)
Miami Heat: -6 (-112)
Over: 213 (-110)
Under: 213 (-110)
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers came into the year with sky-high expectations but have disappointed thus far. Los Angeles' biggest issue lies on the offensive end where they rank last in scoring and 28th in offensive efficiency. They've been able to withstand a total collapse thanks to their elite defense and solid rebounding numbers. LA ranks fifth in points allowed and defensive efficiency. On the glass, they rank 14th in rebound differential and eighth in rebound rate. The Clippers listed a number of notable players as questionable tonight including Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, and Luke Kennard.
Despite their struggles of late, the Clippers have to be pleased with the status of franchise cornerstone Kawhi Leonard. Leonard played in both games earlier in the week after missing a majority of the beginning of the season. He scored 16 points in both games – notably hitting the game-winning shot against the Hornets. The former Finals MVP is out for tonight's game.
LA will need more from leading scorer Paul George if they want to cover as road underdogs. For the season George averages 22.7 PPG while shooting 45% from the field and 37% from three. He is, however, coming off his worst performance of the season – an 11-point night where he shot just 25%. George remains a potent scorer and all-around contributor and a bounce-back tonight is certainly a possibility especially considering Miami's injuries.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami can be thought of as essentially the Clippers of the Eastern Conference. They had high expectations coming into the season but have been disappointing. Like LA, Miami's struggles come primarily on offense. The Heat rank 28th in scoring and 26th in offensive efficiency. They are much better on defense where they rank ninth in points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Heat don't do themselves many favors on the glass where they rank 24th in rebound differential and 23rd in rebound rate. Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent will both miss tonight's game, while Jimmy Butler is listed as questionable.
The biggest factor in whether or not the Heat will cover a hefty home spread lies in the play of center Bam Adebayo. Bam has been the most consistent player for Miami this season as he's played in 23 of their 25 games. In that time he ranks second on the team in scoring (20.7 PPG) and leads the team in rebounding (9.2 RPG). Bam serves as the linchpin of Miami's elite defense despite his defensive statistics being slightly down this season. He's been efficient on the offensive end, shooting 53% from the field and 86% from the free throw line. The Clippers have a solid frontline but Bam is on a whole different level.
While Miami will be without guards Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent, they welcomed the return of guard Victor Oladpio on Tuesday. In his season debut, Oladipo played sparingly. In 19 minutes, Oladipo scored nine points, corralled two rebounds, and dished out two assists. He's a massive question mark because of his health. Over the last three seasons, Oladipo has appeared in just 13 games. That being said, he was a force to be reckoned with when healthy. He averaged 21.2 PPG and 5.0 APG in the 20-21 season with Houston. Miami doesn't expect the 30-year-old to return to that level, but in a tough game with a number of key guards out Oladipo could prove to be a massive X-factor.
Final Clippers-Heat Prediction & Pick
This Miami team is allowing the fourth-most points to opposing small forwards. Ride the road ‘dogs against the overvalued Heat.
Final Clippers-Heat Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +6 (-108)
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