The Los Angeles Clippers (8-6) visit the Dallas Mavericks (7-5) in a Western Conference matchup. Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Clippers-Mavericks prediction and pick.
LA sits in seventh place in the Western Conference following a victory over Houston on Monday night. The Clippers are just 6-8 against the spread, although there has been value in betting their matchups' under with it hitting 79% of the time. The Mavericks are in sixth following a win over the Blazers last weekend. Dallas, too, has struggled against the spread having covered just 27% of their games. They've been an over machine, with 67% of their games going over.
The two teams split their season series last year, 2-2. LA won the first and last matchup by six and two-point margins, respectively. Dallas took the middle two by eight and seven-point margins, respectively. Two of the four matchups went over Tuesday's 212-point total.
Here are the Clippers-Mavericks NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Clippers-Mavericks Odds
Los Angeles Clippers: +7 (-112)
Dallas Mavericks: -7 (-108)
Over: 212 (-110)
Under: 212 (-110)
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers had a rough start to the season, but they have since won six of their last eight games. LA is a defensive-minded team that plays at a snail's pace and grinds out games. The Clippers are fourth in points allowed and second in defensive efficiency while playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league. They've been abysmal offensively, however, ranking last in points per game and 29th in offensive efficiency as Kawhi Leonard continues to sit out. The Clippers are not a good rebounding team, either, as they rank 18th in rebound rate and are just 17th in rebound differential.
LA will win if it can score. The Clippers are 5-0 when they score over 110 points this season, but they will have their work cut out for them against a stingy Mavericks defense. Thankfully, LA still has forward Paul George as he has been the primary option on offense with Leonard sidelined. George is the only Clipper averaging more than 15 points per game. For the season, PG-13 averages 24.5 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 4.5 assists to go along with 1.5 steals. He's still searching for his outside shot, however, as his 34.6% from 3-point range is the worst mark since his rookie season. George did find a good deal of success against Dallas last year. In two games against the Mavericks, George averaged 27.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.0 assists.
Outside of George, the Clippers will need one of their various veterans to step up if they want to cover a lofty seven-point spread. In recent games, that player has been Norman Powell. The veterean wing averages just 12.3 points per game for the season, but he has really turned it on as of late after a brutal start. Over his last four games, Powell has averaged 17 points on 50% shooting. LA is 3-1 over those four — demonstrating how vital it is that someone outside of PG-13 helps shoulder the scoring load. He was effective against Dallas last season, too. He averaged 17.7 points and 5.7 rebounds in three games against the Mavs.
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Although not on the same level as LA, Dallas, too, is a defensive-minded team. The Mavericks have allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league and are ninth in defensive efficiency. Offensively, Dallas is just 20th in points per game the underlying numbers suggest a stellar offense. The Mavericks are ninth in offensive efficiency despite having the fewest assists in the league and being in the bottom half in 3-point percentage. How, then, do they have a strong offense? Easy, they have Luka Doncic.
Luka has been on an absolute tear to begin the season. Doncic leads the NBA in scoring with 34.3 PPG and has the league's highest Player Efficiency Rating (33.33). He also leads his own team in assists (8.1), rebounding (8.7), and steals (2.0). Despite his incredible start, Doncic still hasn't shot particularly well from deep as his 28.6% from 3-land is the lowest mark of his career. Part of the reason for his poor shooting, however, is how much he has the ball and how difficult of looks he's getting. He is on pace for an absolutely historic usage-rate season. Doncic currently has a 39.12% usage rate, which would trail only Russell Westbrook's MVP season and James Harden's 36 PPG season for the highest usage season of all time.
Luka Doncic has been incredible, but if the Mavericks are going to cover they're going to need someone outside of him to step up. In recent games, that guy has been big man Christian Wood. An offseason acquisition, Wood hasn't quite earned starters minutes yet but has still managed to be Dallas' second-best offensive weapon. For the season, Wood has averaged 15.9 points and 7.5 rebounds.
Final Clippers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
Dallas is the better team, but seven points are far too many for what should be a playoff-like atmosphere. Take the Clippers and expect a close game.
Final Clippers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +7 (-112)
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