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NBA odds: Clippers vs. Suns prediction, odds, pick, and more

Two of the top teams in the Western Conference will match up Wednesday night as the Los Angeles Clippers take on the Phoenix Suns. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Clippers-Suns prediction and pick.

The Clippers hold a record of 43-20 overall and are 36-26-1 against the spread. Los Angeles is coming off a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Suns stand at 43-18 overall and 37-23-1 against the spread. Phoenix is coming off a win over the New York Knicks.

Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Clippers-Suns odds.

NBA Odds: Clippers-Suns Odds

Los Angeles Clippers +4 (-110)

Phoenix Suns -4 (-110)

Over 221 Points (-110)

Under 221 Points (-110)

Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread

The Clippers have faced the Suns twice this year and come away with the win both times. Of course, in both those games, they had all or nearly all of their starters healthy. The Clips won’t have that luxury today.

Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley will remain sidelined, while Kawhi Leonard is doubtful to play in this contest.

Even with three starters out, the Clippers remain a dangerous bunch thanks to the depth of their roster. Los Angeles will still have three guys averaging double-digit scoring and four players shooting above 40% from deep on at least three attempts per game take the floor tonight.

Leading this pack is Paul George. Aside from a dud of a game against the Pelicans in their last game, George has been the leader of this Clippers squad in April. In the month span, PG13 has averaged 27.7 points on 48.6% shooting and 41.2% from deep.

Because of George, the Clippers have managed to go 11-3 in April so far even though Kawhi Leonard has only suited up for five games in the month. There are very few teams that could accomplish this feat with their star player out.

Much of the Clippers success comes from their elite defensive effort. Los Angeles has held their opponent below their scoring average in six of their last seven games.

Los Angeles allows the fifth least points in the league, and has been particularly adept at stopping opponents at the perimeter. The Clippers allow the fifth least three point makes and hold shooters to the ninth lowest percentage from beyond the arc.

Assuming Leonard doesn’t suit up, Los Angeles can still deploy enough defensive pressure to keep themselves in this game.

Why The Suns Could Cover The Spread

After a minor speed bump on their Eastern Conference road trip, the Suns closed with a bang in an impressive victory over the New York Knicks, snapping New York’s 12 game cover streak.

Now, the Suns return to Phoenix, where they’ve been dominant all year. Chris Paul and company are 20-12 against the spread in the friendly confines, tied for the second-best home spread record in the Western Conference.

Additionally, Phoenix has produced an excellent track record as small favorites. When marked as favorites and given four points or less, the Suns have gone 11-4-1 against the spread.

Like the Clippers of late, the Suns get most of their wins thanks to staunch defensive efforts. They might not have the defensive talent the Clippers do, but they set a slow, methodical pace that fits Paul’s playing style perfectly.

Phoenix grinds games to a halt, averaging the sixth least possessions per game. Paul, Devin Booker, and Deandre Ayton all thrive in half-court sets, allowing the Suns to pick opponents apart.

The Suns have held opponents to the 5th lowest three-point percentage and tenth lowest field goal percentage in the league. The Clippers have scorers, but they’ll need to have nearly perfect games to break a Suns defense that won’t give them many chances.

Phoenix’s path to victory tonight lies in slowing the game and wearing down a Clippers team that is missing it’s best offensive and defensive player.

Final Clippers-Suns Prediction & Pick

After a grueling road trip, the Suns should be fully energized to get in front of their home fans. I expect this to be a low-scoring affair, with Phoenix taking advantage of the key Clipper absences. The Suns big three should supply enough offense to get Phoenix ahead, and their defensive effort should keep them there. Suns in a fairly close one tonight.