The Miami Heat take on the Charlotte Hornets for the third time this season on Sunday afternoon. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Hornets prediction and pick.
The Heat hold a record of 34-30 overall and are 28-34-2 against the spread. Miami is coming off a blowout win over the Cleveland Cavaliers last night.
The Hornets stand at 31-32 overall and 33-29-1 against the spread. Like the Heat, Charlotte is playing the second game of a back-to-back. They defeated the Detroit Pistons last night.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Heat-Hornets odds.
NBA Odds: Heat-Hornets Odds
Miami Heat -5.5 (-106)
Charlotte Hornets +5.5 (-114)
Over 211 Points (-110)
Under 211 Points (-110)
Why The Hornets Could Cover The Spread
The Hornets have been much better at covering the spread at home than on the road. When in Charlotte, the Hornets hold a 17-12-1 ATS record, as opposed to their 16-17 record away from the Spectrum Center.
Additionally, Charlotte has already faced the Heat twice this season and prevailed as underdogs both times.
In both of their wins, the Hornets overwhelmed Miami with their three-point shooting. Charlotte has hit a whopping 46% of their threes against the Heat defense this year.
While Miami has brushed up their three-point defense, they started the year in the lower percentile and still show flashes of ineptitude when Jimmy Butler is not on the floor. On Saturday night, the Heat allowed the Cavaliers, the second-worst three-point shooting team in the league, to shoot 20/40 from the three-point line.
The Hornets have much more firepower from deep than the Cavs. Charlotte holds the eighth-highest three-point percentage in the league and has five players shooting above 37% from deep on four or more attempts per game.
The Hornets' offense does a great job of spreading the wealth and has multiple players capable of scoring 20 points on any given night. With the return of LaMelo Ball to the lineup, expect to see Charlotte's efficiency rise.
On the defensive end, the Hornets are a middle-of-the-pack team. They rank 16th in opponent field goal percentage and 14th in opponent three-point percentage.
However, they're playing a Heat team that has struggled all year to put points on the board. The Heat score the 4th least points in the league, putting up a meager 106.8 points per game.
The Hornets should aim to turn up the heat on Miami early, and if they jump out to a big lead, it'll be tough for Jimmy Butler and company to close the gap.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Miami's struggles against the Hornets have stemmed from the perimeter, but a few factors should help the Heat improve in that area tonight.
For one, Miami has vastly improved its three-point defense. The Heat were the fourth worst three-point defense in the league by opponent percentage early in the season, but have skyrocketed all the way up to 11th best. Miami has allowed opposing shooters to hit only 36.3% of their threes.
Secondly, the Hornets could be missing one of their best shooters and biggest threats from deep tonight in Devonte' Graham. Graham shoots more threes than any other Hornet at a 37.4% clip, and if he is sidelined, it's one more shooter the Heat don't have to worry about.
Overall, Miami's biggest strength this season has been on the defensive end. They hold opponents to only 107.4 points per game, the third least in the NBA. The only defenses that have been more efficient are the defending champion Lakers and Tom Thibodeau's Knicks.
The Heat allow opponents to shoot 45.3% from the field, mostly thanks to the tenacious defensive effort from Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo.
Butler leads the leagues in steals at 2.1 per game, and Adebayo is averaging 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. When your two best players are also your two best defenders, the rest of the team usually follows in their footsteps, and this has been the case for this year's Heat.
The Hornets have struggled to score efficiently all year and hold the ninth-lowest field goal percentage in the league. If their three-point shots are falling, this could get ugly fast for Charlotte.
Final Heat-Hornets Prediction & Pick
The Hornets looked energized and motivated by Ball's return in yesterday's win over the Pistons. They get the luxury of sleeping in their own beds and foregoing travel, while the Heat had to make the trek from Cleveland to Charlotte last night. I suspect the Hornets muster together enough offensive firepower tonight to, at the very least, make this competitive. Give me the points with the Hornets, and it might be worth it to sprinkle a little on the Charlotte ML if you're feeling bold.
FINAL PICK AND PREDICTION: MIA 107, CHR 105 (CHARLOTTE HORNETS +5.5)
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