The Miami Heat travel up to the Big Apple to take on the New York Knicks at MSG. The Knicks are currently riding a three-game winning streak and have been impressive all season long. Standing pat at the deadline showed that the culture has shifted in New York and the Knicks are building a solid nucleus for years to come. This will be their third matchup against the Miami Heat, who recently acquired Victor Oladipo in a deadline blockbuster.
The last game between these two saw a two-point victory in favor of Miami behind a 26-point outing from Jimmy Buckets. Oladipo is out and Randle is questionable. Who will have the edge? It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Heat-Knicks prediction and pick.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Heat-Knicks odds.
NBA Odds: Heat-Knicks Odds
Miami Heat -4 (-105)
New York Knicks +4 (-115)
Over 207 Points (-110)
Under 207 Points(-110)
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
The Miami Heat have had an up-and-down year following a championship appearance in 2020. They started out slow, then went on a tear, and have now returned to earth losing six straight. Despite the recent struggles, Miami still holds a one-game lead over Indiana for a playoff spot. The Heat offense has been stagnant, but the defense has been a consistent bright spot. Miami is fourth in total score and second in field goal percentage against in the league. They are in a nice spot against a Knick team that is well below average on the offensive end.
Miami has a couple of key pieces that have played well of late. Jimmy Butler is the catalyst for this team, averaging 21.3 points and 7.8 rebounds per game in 2021. Duncan Robinson has also played well, averaging 12.2 points per game on 43.1% shooting in his last 10. Goran Dragic is probable, which is huge because this team is much improved on the offensive end when he is on the floor. The Heat have played well as the favorites in 2021 with a record of 17-13. Three of their last five losses have been by five points or less and without Robinson and possibly Randle, the Heat are in a good spot to knock off the Knicks in a bounce-back performance.
Why The Knicks Could Cover The Spread
The New York Knicks received devastating news on Saturday night as Mitchell Robinson broke his foot just four games into his return from a broken hand. We are all praying for a speedy recovery for the Knicks big man. Despite his injury and Randle's absence, the Knicks still pulled off an impressive six-point victory in Milwaukee. They were led by guards RJ Barrett and Alec Burks, who both went for 21 points in the win. Derrick Rose and Immanuel Quickley provided great depth off the bench, each dropping 13 points as well. Burks has been a great story for New York of late and has averaged 13.2 points per game on 40.6% shooting from three in 2021.
New York has a few glaring trends working in their favor right now. The Knicks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in the previous game, which Miami did in their last affair. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game, which they did against the Bucks on Saturday night. If you believe in trends, then these tell you the whole story. Miami will be playing against the Knicks' league-leading defense without Oladipo and potentially with a hobbled Dragic. New York is 6-1 in their last seven games at the Garden.
Final Heat-Knicks Prediction & Pick
The injury status for both teams being up in the air makes it hard to confidently pick a side. Randle would be a huge blow for New York if he is out of action. Dragic's absence would also be a huge blow for his club. With all of the unknown, I am siding with the total. The over is a good play here as the total is very low. Miami will counter New York's stellar defense by pushing the pace in transition and playing uptempo basketball overall. This will speed up play on both ends and allow for more possessions for both clubs. There will be enough talent on the court either way to beat this low total.
FINAL PICK: Over 207 (-110)
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