Sacramento has won six consecutive games and shot up to fifth place in the Western Conference. The Kings are a league-best 11-4 against the spread while 57% of their matchups have gone over. Memphis, on the other hand, has dropped to seventh place after losing to Brooklyn on Sunday. The Grizzlies are 6-10-1 against the spread while 50% of their matchups going over. The Grizzlies are 1-0 against the Kings this season after their 125-110 win in Sacramento last month.
Here are the Kings-Grizzlies NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Kings-Grizzlies Odds
Sacramento Kings: +1.5 (-106)
Memphis Grizzlies: -1.5 (-114)
Over: 235 (-110)
Under: 235 (-110)
Why The Kings Could Cover The Spread
Sacramento is the hottest team in the NBA right now and that starts on the offense end of the floor. After starting the season 3-6, the Kings have rebounded to win six straight games. During that span, Sacramento is averaging 131.5 points per game – first in the NBA. They lead the league in points per game for the entire season, too. Their offense averages 121.4 points per game thanks to shooting at a league-best 50.2% rate. They attempt a lot of threes (sixth most) and do a great job getting to the free-throw line (5th most). They have a great opportunity to continue their offensive success against the Grizzlies' 17th-ranked defense.
Sacramento's offense is led by point guard De'Aaron Fox. Fox is in the midst of a career year as he leads the team in scoring. He currently holds career-high averages in scoring (25.4 PPG), field goal percentage (55.8%), three-point percentage (38.2%), and free throw percentage (84.5%). He has always been dangerous off the dribble, but it seems as though his shooting has finally caught up with his elite speed and handle. Fox has actually seen his scoring average dip down a bit to 24 PPG during the win streak, however, that is merely a testament to his supreme playmaking. The distributor averages 6.4 assists for the season but has seen that number jump to 8.7 per game during the recent win streak.
For as well as Fox has played this year, it is the surrounding pieces who have had the biggest role in their win streak. Big man Domantas Sabonis shook off an early slump in averaging 19.3 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists over the last six games. He's shooting an absurd 68% over that span. Sabonis is clearly the robin to Fox's batman – a role he's currently thriving in. In addition to Sabonis, wings Harrison Barnes and Kevin Huerter have been critical to Sacramento's success. The pair have averaged over 16 PPG a piece during the win streak, with each of them shooting over 40% from three.
Why The Grizzlies Could Cover The Spread
Despite their recent injury luck, Memphis is still a formidable team fully capable of snapping Sacramento's win streak. The Grizzlies are a formidable offensive unit – ranking 10th in scoring. They'll need to bring their A-game on offense in order to keep up with Sacramento's high-power attack.
The big question mark for Memphis is the status of point guard Ja Morant. Morant is questionable with an injury, however, I'm assuming he'll be good to go tonight. If he is, that would be a massive boost to a Grizzlies team already without Desmond Bane. Memphis struggled in his absence against the Nets despite getting 29 combined points from their two guards. Morant is in the midst of another incredible year. He's averaging 28.6 PPG, 7.1 APG, and 6.2 RPG while shooting 47% from the field and 39% from three.
The Grizzlies will be looking for someone to replace Desmond Bane's production if they want to cover tonight. In their earlier matchup with Sacramento, Bane scored 31 points and drilled six threes. A likely candidate to replace at least some of those numbers is wing Dillon Brooks. Brooks is a capable scorer and shooter (16.9 PPG on 34.1% three-point shooting) who is coming off his highest-scoring game of the season. In the loss to Brooklyn, Brooks scored 31 points but shot just 3-11 from beyond the arc. If Morant is inactive he will need to replicate that scoring load. Assuming Morant is active, Brooks will need to be dialed in from deep. He's struggled shooting the ball of late – having shot under 35% from three in each of the last five games.
Final Kings-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick
Regardless of whether Morant plays or not, I like Sacramento to continue their win streak tonight. That being said, wait until he's officially active for a better line for the Kings.
Final Kings-Grizzlies Prediction & Pick: Sacramento Kings +1.5 (-106)