The Denver Nuggets (7-3) take on the Indiana Pacers (5-5) on Wednesday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Nuggets-Pacers prediction and pick.
Denver has a stellar 7-3 record and have won three consecutive games after beating San Antonio on Monday. The Nuggets are just 5-5 against the spread (ATS) and 50% of their games have gone over.
Indiana had a rough start to the season but have won four of their last five games following their victory over New Orleans on Monday. Indiana has a strong 60% cover rate and 50% of their games have gone over.
The Nuggets won both meetings between the two teams last year by three and seven points. Indiana has not beaten Denver since the 2019-20 season.
Here are the Nuggets-Pacers NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Nuggets-Pacers Odds
Denver Nuggets: -5.5 (-114)
Indiana Pacers: +5.5 (-106)
Over: 235 (-108)
Under: 235 (-112)
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The Nuggets have been one of the best offensive teams in the league which has been key in making up for their 19th-ranked defense. Denver is third in offensive efficiency and 7th in points per game. They have seven players averaging at least 1o points per game – a testament to their balanced offensive attack.
You can't talk about the Nuggets' offense without mentioning the back-to-back MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic's numbers are down this year, however, his elite efficiency remains. With his supporting cast, healthy Jokic has deferred more this year in favor of his talented teammates. That being said, he is still putting together another incredible statistical season. Jokic is averaging 20.9 PPG, 10.5 RPG, and 9.3 APG. He's averaged nearly a triple-double while maintaining a 61% field goal percentage.
Outside of Jokic, the big story for Denver thus far has been the return of forward Michael Porter Jr. and guard Jamal Murray. Both players are recovering from serious injuries and have seen their minutes carefully managed thus far. However, that hasn't stopped the pair of talented scorers from filling up the box score. MPJ has been the team's second-leading scorer and rebounder as he's averaged 17.9 PPG and 7.3 RPG. He's been absolutely lethal from three, shooting 49.3% from beyond the arc.
Murray has had a slower start than his young forward as he's only recently seen his minutes return to normal. For the season, Murray has averaged 15.4 points and 4.0 assists, although both have increased in recent games. Murray's averaged 18.7 points and 5.7 assists in his last three games and is coming off an efficient 19-6-5 outing against the Spurs. His gradual return to dominance is something worth keeping in mind when making a Nuggets-Pacers prediction.
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
The Pacers have been one of the surprise teams in the league as of late. Largely considered favorites in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, Indiana is in the midst of a hot streak. The Pacers have won four of their last five games. Their recent run of success has included wins over the Nets, Heat, and Pelicans.
Indiana has been something of a one-trick pony this season. The Pacers feature a surprisingly-elite offense that ranks fourth in points per game and eighth in offensive efficiency. They have been held back by their 28th-ranked defense, but make up for it on the glass where they have the league's seventh-best rebounding differential.
The Pacers feature a rather balanced offensive attack as four players average over 18 points per game. Young guards Tyrese Haliburton (21.7 PPG) and Bennedict Mathurin (19.4 PPG) lead the way in the scoring department. Haliburton in particular has been a vital all-around contributor for Indiana. The fourth-year guard not only leads the team in scoring but also in assists (9.7 per game) and steals (1.7 per game). His development as an all-around player has been vital to Indiana's success.
For as good as Indiana's guards have been, center Myles Turner has arguably been the most impactful on the team's overall success. Turner has been up and down this season as he's battled injury and trade rumors but has shown the ability to explode on any given night. For the season, Turner averages 18.4 points and 8.0 rebounds but notably has a series of eye-popping performances. He recorded 27 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks in a win over the Wizards last month but that isn't even his most impressive game. In their most recent outing against the Pelicans, Turner scored 37 points, pulled down 12 rebounds, and blocked three shots.
Final Nuggets-Pacers Prediction & Pick
While Denver is the better team, the Pacers have been on fire of late and should keep things close on their home court.
Final Nuggets-Pacers Prediction & Pick: Indiana Pacers +5.5 (-106)
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