The Indiana Pacers (23-23) visit the Denver Nuggets (32-13) on Friday night. Action tips off at 9:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Pacers-Nuggets prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Indiana has lost five straight games and dropped to ninth in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers covered 57% of their games while 51% went under the projected point total. Denver has won eight straight games and is in first place in the Western Conference. The Nuggets covered 53% of their games while 53% went under. This will be the second and final meeting between the two teams. Denver took the first game in Indy, 122-119.
Here are the Pacers-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Pacers-Nuggets Odds
Indiana Pacers: +11 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: -11 (-110)
Over: 239.5 (-110)
Under: 239.5 (-110)
How To Watch Pacers vs. Nuggets
TV: Bally Indiana, Altitude 2
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Pacers Could Cover The Spread
Indiana has fallen apart in the wake of Tyrese Haliburton's injury as they have now lost five consecutive games. Each of their last three games has been decided by double-digits as they cannot seem to stop anyone on defense. That being said, the Pacers have a good chance to cover tonight as heavy road favorites thanks to their ability to run the fast break and force turnovers. Indiana leads the league in fast break points (18.9 PPG) and ranks eighth in steals (7.9 SPG). They forced 22 Denver turnovers in their previous meeting – something they'll look to replicate tonight.
Offensively, the Paces are going to need to score if they want to keep up with Denver's high-powered offense. In their four games since Haliburton's injury, they've relied first and foremost on center Myles Turner to carry the offensive load. The stretch-five has averaged 18.5 PPG and 5.5 RPG over their last four games. He shot 67% during that span and averaged three three-pointers per game. Although he was limited to 14 points on 5/11 shooting in their previous matchup with Denver, look for an increased offensive output given their injuries.
The X-factor for Indiana tonight is rookie Bennedict Mathurin. The sixth overall pick, Mathruin ranks second among rookies in scoring with 17.1 PPG. Although he primarily serves as their sixth man, Mathurin is clearly a huge part of their game plan as he ranks third on the team in scoring. He has already shown he can play with the Nuggets as he scored 30 points on 10/17 shooting in their previous matchup. He'll likely need a similar performance tonight if Indiana wants to hang with the red-hot Nuggets.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league right now as they have the second-longest winning streak in the NBA. Unfortunately for them, the longest winning streak belongs to Memphis – a team that sits just 0.5 games back of them for first place in the West. Thus, the Nuggets are highly motivated to keep winning as they continue their hunt for the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. They have a great chance to do so tonight as the sputtering Pacers come to town. That being said, they'll need to tune up their defense if they want to cover a hefty spread against a team they beat by just four points earlier in the season. Denver ranks just 14th in points allowed (113.2 Opp. PPG) while Indiana ranks a respectable 12th in scoring (113.2 PPG).
The biggest advantage Denver has tonight comes in the paint. The Nuggets rank fourth in points in the paint (55.1 PPG) while the Pacers allow the 14th-most points down low (49.6 Opp. PPG). They have a similar advantage on the glass. The Nuggets rank sixth in rebound rate compared to Indiana's 23rd. That domination inside starts with their MVP center, Nikola Jokic.
Jokic may have won the previous two MVP awards, but that hasn't stopped him from dominating this season. He is the favorite on FanDuel to win MVP yet again thanks to averaging 25.1 PPG, 11 RPG, and 9.9 APG. Despite ranking sixth in rebounding and second in assists, he is almost more impressive scoring himself as he is shooting the sixth-highest percentage in the NBA. Perhaps the most telling stat for his dominance is his triple-double odds. After recording a triple-double in five of his last six games, Jokic is just +100 to do so again tonight.
Final Pacers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
These teams could not be headed in more opposite directions as Denver is one of the hottest teams in the league while Indiana is the coldest. Given that the Pacers have lost their last three games by double-digits, I like the Nuggets to cover despite the hefty spread.
Final Pacers-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -11 (-110)
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