The Oklahoma City Thunder (18-22) visit the Miami Heat (21-20) on Tuesday night. Action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Thunder-Heat prediction and pick.
Oklahoma City has won three of its last four games but still sits in 13th place in the Western Conference. The Thunder covered 60% of their games while 60% went over the projected point total. Miami has lost two of their last three yet remains in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. The Heat covered 41% of their games while 54% went under. This will be the second and final meeting between the two teams. Miami took a two-point victory in Oklahoma City in the first match.
Here are the Thunder-Heat NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Thunder-Heat Odds
Oklahoma City Thunder: +2.5 (-110)
Miami Heat: -2.5 (-110)
Over: 222.5 (-110)
Under: 222.5 (-110)
How To Watch Thunder vs. Heat
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT APP
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET/ 4:30 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Thunder Could Cover The Spread
Oklahoma City has played well of late but will need to continue their strong offensive season if they want to cover tonight. Although they scored just 108 points in their prior meeting with the Heat, the Thunder are one of the best offensive teams in the league. Oklahoma City ranks eighth in scoring (116.5 PPG) and is particularly deadly in the paint. They averaged the fourth-most points in the paint (55.5 PPG) but will be matched up with a stingy Heat defense that ranks second in points allowed (109 Opp. PPG) and first in points in the paint allowed (44.8 Opp. PPG). That being said, the Thunder only lost by two last time despite the Heat draining 24 three-pointers.
The Heat likely won't hit 24 threes again but if they do the Thunder will need to find a way to penetrate Miami's defense. That starts with star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA was solid in their prior meeting with the Heat, scoring 27 points and dishing out seven assists. However, he can certainly do more on the offensive end. The 24-year-old finds himself in the midst of a breakout season. He averages the fourth-most points in the NBA (30.9 PPG) in addition to dishing out a solid 5.6 assists per game. SGA is the rare guard who doesn't rely on the three-pointer and as a result, he maintains stellar shooting numbers of 50% from the floor and 91% from the line. He only got to the line six times in their prior matchup – a far cry from his 10.3 FTA per game.
Assuming SGA can bounce back and have a big game, the Thunder will need both Josh Giddey and Lou Dort to have strong games once again. Both players played well in their prior matchup, with Giddey scoring 19 and Dort chipping in 18. Giddey in particular could pose a threat to the Heat tonight thanks to his all-around game. The 20-year-old has been playing especially well of late, averaging 18.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, and 5.0 APG across his last five games. Look for him to be a focal point in a rare nationally televised game for the Thunder.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
Despite Miami taking a two-point, road victory in their prior meeting with the Thunder, they enter tonight's game as just 2.5-point favorites. That is likely due to big man Bam Adebayo being ruled out. However, star Jimmy Butler missed the last game with OKC but will play tonight. With Butler back and Bam out, the Heat will likely rely on their defense to get the job done. Miami does an excellent job at forcing turnovers as they rank third in forced turnovers (16.6 Opp. TOPG).
The Miami defense will be as solid as ever, but if they want to cover they're going to need to score. Miami ranks dead-last in scoring (108.7 PPG) but has a favorable matchup against Oklahoma City's 23rd-ranked defense (116.7 Opp. PPG). For the Heat, that offense starts with guard Tyler Herro. Herro was spectacular in their earlier win over OKC. The combo guard drained nine three-pointers en route to his 35 points in the win. While he likely won't flirt with double-digit threes again, it certainly isn't out of the question. For the season, Herro averaged 3.3 made threes per game and hits them at a 39% clip. The Thunder rank in the bottom 10 in threes allowed – setting Herro up for another big night.
The return of Jimmy Butler is massive for a Heat team starved of offense. Butler leads the team with 21.6 PPG and will likely have favorable matchups all night long against a Thunder team that struggles to defend opposing wings.
Final Thunder-Heat Prediction & Pick
With Bam out, I like the Thunder to dominate the paint and keep things close.
Final Thunder-Heat Prediction & Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5 (-110)
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