The Minnesota Timberwolves (22-23) visit the Denver Nuggets (31-13) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 10:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Timberwolves-Nuggets prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Minnesota has won two of their last three games but still sits in ninth place in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves covered 42% of their games while 51% went under the projected point total. Denver has won seven straight games and remains in first place in the West. The Nuggets covered 54% of their games while 52% went under. This will be the second of four meetings between the two teams. The Timberwolves won the first matchup in Minnesota, 124-111.
Here are the Timberwolves-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Nuggets Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +8.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: -8.5 (-110)
Over: 237.5 (-110)
Under: 237.5 (-110)
How To Watch Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
TV: ESPN, Bally North, Altitude
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
Minnesota enters tonight's game fresh off a one-point loss to Utah but remains in an excellent position to cover tonight against a team they beat by double-digits earlier this month. Minnesota features a solid offense that ranks 12th in scoring (115 PPG). They are especially potent in the paint where they rank sixth with 54.8 PPG. Despite their lack of outside shooting, the Timberwolves rank fourth in two-point field goal percentage (58%). That being said, Minnesota will need to sure up their defense if they want to cover against the first-place Nuggets.
Despite trading for former Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, the Timberwolves have been a poor defensive team this season. They rank 19th in points allowed (115.4 Opp. PPG), thanks primarily to their inability to defend the three. Minnesota allows the third-most threes per game (13.6) at the second-highest rate in the league (37%).
With all of the assets they gave up for Gobert, he figures to be a huge focus tonight as he matches up against reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. For the season, Gobert averages 13.3 PPG and 11.5 RPG. However, he has averaged a career-low 1.3 blocks per game. He is questionable as well – casting an even bigger shadow on Minnesota's chances of covering tonight. That being said, backup center Naz Reid has proven effective when Gobert has previously missed time.
Regardless of whether or not Gobert plays, the Timberwolves' chances of covering tonight largely lie with point guard D'Angelo Russell. Russell has quietly put together one of his most efficient seasons yet as he is shooting a career-high 46% en route to a 17.1 PPG average. Additionally, he's racked up 6.2 APG while remaining a solid shooter from beyond the arc. Although Russell missed their previous win over Denver, he will likely play a huge role tonight with Gobert and leading scorer Anthony Edwards questionable.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Despite having lost to Minnesota by double-digits a few weeks ago, the Nuggets remain in an excellent position to cover as home favorites. Denver hasn't lost a game since their last game against Minnesota and now gets them at home where they hold a league-best 20-3 record. The Nuggets feature a tremendous offensive that ranks sixth in scoring (117.2 PPG). They do an excellent job sharing the ball as they rank second in assists (28.8 APG). Additionally, Denver could take advantage of Minnesota's lackluster transition defense. The Nuggets rank fourth in fast break scoring (16.9) while the Timberwolves give up the 12th-most transition baskets in the league.
Denver's stellar offense is led by two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic holds the best odds to win the MVP yet again as he is a +130 favorite. The 27-year-old averages 25 PPG, 11 RPG, and 9.8 APG. In addition to ranking in the top five in both rebounds and assists, Jokic ranks sixth with a 63% field goal percentage. He is, without a doubt, one of the most impactful and skilled players in the league. Denver “limited” him to a 24-9-7 line in their previous meeting – meaning he'll likely be motivated for a bigger performance tonight. Jokic amassed a triple-double in four of his last five games and could do so again tonight against Minnesota's 19th-ranked defense.
The X-factor for Denver tonight is forward Michael Porter Jr. MPJ drained four threes en route to 18 points in their previous matchup with Minnesota and should see plenty of open looks again tonight. Denver allows the third-most threes per game – setting Porter up for a strong showing.
Final Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
With Minnesota banged up, I like Denver to avenge their earlier loss and take care of the Timberwolves with ease.
Final Timberwolves-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -8.5 (-110)
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