The Minnesota Timberwolves (16-18) visit the New Orleans Pelicans (21-12) on Wednesday night. Action tips off at 8:10 pm ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Timberwolves-Pelicans prediction and pick.
Minnesota has lost three consecutive games and since dropped to 11th place in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves are 13-21 against the spread while 56% of their games have gone under the projected point total. New Orleans has won three straight games to bump them up to second place in the West. The Pelicans are 18-15 against the spread while 58% of their games have gone over. This will be the first of three games between the teams. The teams split last year's series, with each team taking a home and an away game.
Here are the Timberwolves-Pelicans NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Timberwolves-Pelicans Odds
Minnesota Timberwolves: +6.5 (-110)
New Orleans Pelicans: -6.5 (-110)
Over: 234 (-112)
Under: 234 (-108)
Why The Timberwolves Could Cover The Spread
The Timberwolves will need to flip the script tonight if they want to cover against a red-hot Pelicans team who is getting their best player back. While the team as a whole has struggled during its three-game losing streak, star Anthony Edwards has thrived. Edwards has done his best to will his team to cover their recent losses as he's averaged 27.3 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 5.3 APG across their last three games. He's shooting 57% over that span and has put together a number of strong defensive performances, averaging one steal and 1.3 blocks per game. While his heroics haven't been rewarded with team success yet, Timberwolves' backers can at least have confidence in the high floor ANT's play provides.
ANT's strong play has been the only constant for a Timberwolves team desperate to find scoring without Karl-Anthony Towns. In recent games, they've got strong production from backup center, Naz Reid. Reid could play a huge role in tonight's game due to the matchup problems that Zion gives starting center Rudy Gobert. Reid is much more limber on the defensive end but still has enough bulk to check Zion in the post. However, it is not his defense that gives Minnesota a good chance to cover tonight. Reid is a lights-out three-point shooter who does a great job spacing the floor and giving Anthony Edwards room to operate. For the season, Reid has shot 38% from beyond the arc. While his playing time has varied all season long, the stretch-five has proven the ability to provide strong production and he could prove to be a major X-factor tonight.
Why The Pelicans Could Cover The Spread
New Orleans has a great chance to cover tonight thanks to the return of Zion Williamson. Zion has missed their last three games. While the Pelicans did go 3-0 in his absence, they surely are pleased to welcome back their star player. The fact that they were able to weather the storm during his absence speaks to the strength of the rest of their team. With Zion back, betters should feel even more confident in their ability to cover against a struggling Timberwolves team.
Zion has been unbelievable this season and will likely enter tonight's game as fresh as he's been all season. For the season, Zion averages 25.2 PPG. 7.2 RPG, and 4.7 APG. The bruising forward is incredibly efficient overall, shooting 60% from the field. He's even better at home where that number climbs to 64%. For as good as Zion's offense has been, his most impressive improvement has come on the defensive end of the court. Previously a lackluster defender, Zion clearly put an emphasis on giving more effort on that end as he averages nearly two STOCKS (steals plus blocks) per game. His return could easily propel the Pelicans to cover especially considering how well they played in his absence.
While Zion's return will likely receive all the media buzz, the play of guard CJ McCollum cannot be understated. He performed admirably in Zion's absence, averaging 25.3 PPG, 8.7 APG, and 7.0 RPG across their last three games. McCollum proved that he can still be the number-one option on a winning team as he's taken more of a backseat role this season. While CJ has struggled somewhat with his efficiency, he's a dynamic playmaker and could be in for another big night against Minnesota's porous defense. The Timberwolves allow the 10th-most points per game to opposing teams – paving the way for McCollum to continue his hot stretch,
Final Timberwolves-Pelicans Prediction & Pick
With Zion back in the lineup, I expect New Orleans to come out firing and make short work of a Minnesota team headed in the wrong direction.
Final Timberwolves-Pelicans Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Pelicans -6.5 (-110)
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