The Golden State Warriors face off against the Los Angeles Clippers for the third time this season at Staples Center. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Clippers prediction and pick.
The Warriors currently hold an overall record of 19-18 and are 18-19 against the spread. Golden State entered the All-Star break on a three-game losing streak, with the latest loss coming to the Suns.
The Clippers stand at 24-14 but are only 20-18 against the spread. Like the Warriors, the Clips are on a three-game losing streak and most recently fell to the Washington Wizards.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Warriors-Clippers odds.
NBA Odds: Warriors-Clippers Odds
Golden State Warriors +7 (-110)
Los Angeles Clippers -7 (-110)
Over 230 Points (-110)
Under 230 Points (-110)
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers' biggest advantage tonight is on the offensive side of the floor. These two rosters are nearly polar opposites when it comes to scoring the ball.
Los Angeles has a squad full of capable shooters that are efficient from three, mid-range, and in the paint. The Warriors have one guy that is capable of scoring consistently at all three levels.
The Clippers lead the league in three-point shooting, averaging a scorching 41.9% from beyond the arc. Seven Clippers average 38% or higher from beyond the arc on at least three attempts per game. Only Steph Curry fits that category for the Warriors.
Even with these dominant numbers, L.A. isn't completely reliant on the three-point shot to win games. Kawhi Leonard is one of the most efficient mid-range shooters in the game, and the Clippers defense is good enough to keep them in games when shots aren't falling.
The Clips allow the sixth least points per game in the league at 109.4 per contest. They've been particularly good at cleaning the boards and keeping opponents off the three-point and free-throw line. Los Angeles ranks in the top ten in defensive rebounding and holds opponents to the ninth-lowest three-point percentage and tenth least free throw attempts.
Without these easy points, the Warriors' offense could be in for a long night.
Golden State is one of only two teams in the Western Conference without five players averaging double-digit scoring. The other is the New Orleans Pelicans. Neither currently holds a playoff seed.
Without that offensive depth, Golden State could get worn down early by a swarming Clippers offense.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
The Clippers might hold the clear offensive edge in this matchup, but the defensive matchup is much closer.
The Warriors have held opponents to only 44.3% shooting from the field, the second-lowest mark in the NBA. Behind Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, opponents have struggled to score from inside the arc against a tough-nosed Warriors squad.
Wiggins has been one of the best individual defenders in the league this year. With his length and speed, he should be able to pester Leonard and George on the perimeter and consistently contest the mid-range jumpers that are surely coming from the duo.
The Warriors key tonight will be stepping up their perimeter defense. They allow opponents to shoot 37.1% from deep, putting their three-point defense in the bottom percentile of the league.
If they can force the Clippers' shooters off the line, the chances of an upset greatly increase. The Clippers score the fourth-least paint points in the league, and forcing them to score against a stubborn Warriors interior could limit L.A.'s output.
Offensively, it's once again all about Steph Curry.
The Warriors will not survive a Curry off-night here. The good news for Warriors bettors is he ended the season red-hot and was just as locked in at the All-Star Game.
Steph is coming off an electric three-point contest win and hit some mind-boggling threes as a member of Team LeBron. With the extra rest, Curry seems primed to come out fresh and continue his hot shooting.
Final Warriors-Clippers Prediction & Pick
In my eyes, the Clippers depth is the biggest factor in this matchup. When the Warriors beat the Clippers earlier this year, Curry had one of his best games of the season with 38 points on 24 shots. This is what it'll take for Golden State to repeat the upset, and I don't see it happening tonight. I'll back the Clippers defense to zone in on Steph early and make anyone but Curry beat them. L.A. should hit enough shots on the other end to get the job done in Staples.
FINAL PICK: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -7
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