The Denver Nuggets start a three-game home stand on Thursday with a matchup against the Golden State Warriors. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Warriors-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Nuggets hold an overall record of 5-6, but Denver is only 3-8 against the spread to start the season. They are coming off a loss to the Brooklyn Nets.
The Warriors stand at 6-5 overall, but they are 5-6 against the spread. In the Warrior's most recent game, they lost a close one to the Indiana Pacers.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Warriors-Nuggets odds.
NBA Odds: Warriors-Nuggets Odds
Denver Nuggets -5 (-110)
Golden State Warriors +5 (-110)
Over 225 Points (-110)
Under 225 Points (-110)
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
After getting blown out in three of their first five matchups, the Warriors have righted the ship.
Since their embarrassing loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on New Years Day, the Warriors have lost just twice, both times by single digits.
Unsurprisingly, the Warriors' success has been directly tied to Stephen Curry and his scoring.
When Curry shoots below 45% from the field, the Warriors are 2-5. When he shoots anything higher than that, they are undefeated at 4-0.
This should be a tasty matchup for the two-time MVP. The Nuggets defense has allowed opponents to average the fifth highest three-point percentage in the league.
It's a good bet that Curry snaps out of the funk that he's been in against a spotty Denver defense. The Nuggets could be in trouble if Curry enters the 30-35 point range.
The Warriors will count on another epic Curry performance and a Draymond Green defensive showcase against Nikola Jokic to pull out the win here.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Similar to how the Warriors have relied on Curry to get them wins, the Nuggets have leaned heavily on Jokic.
Through 11 games, the Joker is putting up ridiculous numbers and should get some legitimate MVP consideration around his name: 24.3 points, 10.9 rebounds, 10.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game are video-game numbers.
Unfortunately for Denver, they haven't gotten much effective production out of anyone else.
Jamal Murray has shown flashes, but he has not had a lengthy streak of effective games so far. Michael Porter Jr. was hot to start the season, but a positive COVID test derailed the promising sophomore.
Still, the Nuggets have eight players currently averaging double-digit scoring. Denver's roster simply has more capable scorers than the Warriors. If Jokic has an off game, the Nuggets have several players capable of picking up the slack. Golden State does not.
Against a defense that allows the fourth most three-point makes in the league, Denver's shooters should have plenty of quality looks from the perimeter. They just need to knock them down.
Jokic will have his hands full with Draymond Green, but no one has proven capable of guarding the Serbian star so far.
The Nuggets need a team effort here as the defense locks in on Jokic, and with a little help from the rest of the roster, they should get this win handily.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
While Curry could have a field day here, the Warriors are too dependent on one guy for my taste. I'll take my chances with the more well-rounded roster here and lay the five points. I predict the Nuggets shooters come out to play tonight and rack up enough makes to counteract Curry, even if he does go off. Nuggets by double digits.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DEN 128, GSW115
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