The Golden State Warriors (26-25) visit the Denver Nuggets (35-16) on Thursday night. Action tips off at 9:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our NBA odds series with a Warriors-Nuggets prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Golden State has won three of their last four games and sits in seventh place in the Western Conference. The Warriors covered 48% of their games while 59% went over the projected point total. Denver has lost two of their last three but remains in first place in the West. The Nuggets covered 52% of their games while 53% went under. This will be the second of three meetings between the conference foes. Denver took the first matchup, 128-123 in Golden State.
Here are the Warriors-Nuggets NBA odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: Warriors-Nuggets Odds
Golden State Warriors: +12 (-110)
Denver Nuggets: -12 (-110)
Over: 231.5 (-110)
Under: 231.5 (-110)
How To Watch Warriors vs. Nuggets
TV: NBCS Bay Area, Altitude
Stream: NBA League Pass
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
Golden State has played its way back into the thick of things as they now sit just 1.5 games back of fourth place in the West. That being said, the Warriors are expected to rest both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson tonight – hence the huge point spread. However, the Warriors have shown the ability to cover and even outright win when their stars sit as they notably took down the Cavaliers in Cleveland with all five starters sitting.
If Golden State is going to cover tonight with a short roster, expect Jordan Poole to have a monster game. Poole is typically the most consistent Warrior in terms of games played as Steve Kerr trots him out regardless of the rest of the team. Poole hasn't quite taken the leap many expected him to after a stellar postseason but he is still averaging a career-high 20.8 PPG. The combo guard is an underrated passer as well, amassing 4.4 APG. A streaky shooter, Poole absolutely has the potential to get hot and will Golden State to cover. While he has been quiet the last few games, expect him to attempt 20+ shots if both Curry and Thompson sit.
Depending on who sits for Golden State, forward Jonathan Kuminga could see his minutes spike tonight. Last year's seventh-overall pick doesn't get consistent playing time but could be a major X-factor if he gets an extended run. For his career, Kuminga averages 16.4 PPG and 5.0 RPG when he plays at least 25 minutes.
Along with Kuminga, big man Kevin Looney should see his minutes spike depending on who sits tonight. Regardless, Looney plays a pivotal role for the Warriors as their de facto big man. Despite playing just 23 minutes per game, Looney averages 8.6 RPG. He is coming off a stellar game against the Wolves where he scored 10 points, pulled down nine rebounds, blocked two shots, and picked up two steals.
Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
Denver has cemented themselves as the Western Conference's top team as they sit three games ahead of the next closest team. The Nuggets feature an elite offense that ranks sixth in scoring with 116.6 PPG. They are one of the best passing teams in the league, ranking second with 28.6 APG. Denver gets it done from all levels of the floor as they lead the league in shooting percentage (51%) and three-point percentage (40%). The Nuggets should be in for another big night offensively as they take on Golden State's 26th-ranked defense.
Denver's chances of covering tonight start first and foremost with big man Nikola Jokic. Jokic is the heart and soul of this Denver team as he leads them in points (25.1 PPG), rebounds (11.1 RPG), and assists (10 APG). The two-time reigning MVP also ranks in the top 10 with a 63% field goal percentage. Jokic has been incredible all season but is on an especially impressive run of late. In 12 January games, Jokic amassed eight triple-doubles, averaging 23 PPG, 11.6 RPG, and 11.3 APG during that span. On FanDuel, he has +100 odds to record a triple-double which only speaks to his dominance.
The X-factor for Denver tonight has to be sharpshooter Michael Porter Jr. The lengthy forward slots in at fourth on the team in scoring, but could be in for an expanded role with Aaron Gordon questionable. Porter is a prolific shooter who averages 16.2 PPG and nearly three three-pointers per game while shooting them at a 41% clip. He's made multiple threes in nine out of his last 10 games and will likely make that 10 in his last 11 given Golden State's 22nd-ranked three-point defense.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick
If Golden State is indeed resting Curry and Thompson, I expect Denver to run away with this one.
Final Warriors-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -12 (-110)
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