The Milwaukee Bucks will stay in South Beach to battle it out with the Miami Heat in Game 4 of this first-round series. It’s time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Bucks-Heat prediction and pick.
After a close Game 1, the Milwaukee Bucks have cruised to victories in Games 2 and 3. They have won the last nine quarters against the Miami Heat and have a commanding 3-0 series lead. Teams that are up 3-0 go on to complete the series sweep 62% of the time.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Bucks-Heat odds.
NBA Odds: Bucks-Heat Game 4 Odds
Milwaukee Bucks -5 (-110)
Miami Heat +5 (-110)
Over 225 Points (-110)
Under 225 Points (-110)
Why The Bucks Could Cover The Spread
The Bucks are dominating the Heat on both ends of the floor. They have won the last two games by a combined 63 points and have held last year's NBA Finalist to an underwhelming 38.06% from the field through the first three games.
The addition of Jrue Holiday has made all the difference for the Bucks in the playoffs this year, and specifically Giannis Antetokounmpo and how he is defended.
Jrue Holiday (15 assists in G2, 12 assists in G3) is the first @Bucks player with back-to-back 10+ assist games in the #NBAPlayoffs since Sam Cassell (May 17-20, 2001). pic.twitter.com/Op24zlmJoO
— NBA History (@NBAHistory) May 28, 2021
Due to Holiday's playmaking ability and the proficient shooting of the Bucks have from three, coach Mike Budenholzer's decision to utilize the pick-and-roll to manipulate the Heat's defense has worked wonders. Miami is no longer allowed to repeat their defensive approach from last year's playoff series and use multiple defenders to block off the paint.
The Bucks will be looking to continue their momentum to wrap up this series and ensure they can have multiple days of rest before Round Two.
Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread
History would tell us this series is all but over. No team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit. However, if one team is to conquer this uphill battle, it would be Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.
That said, this feat will not be able to happen solely on “Heat Culture.” Erik Spoelstra and his men will need to find a way to put the ball in the basket. They have failed to score over 100 points in the last two games, and aside from Duncan Robinson and Goran Dragic in Game 1, no player has tallied over 20 points in a game this series.
Jimmy Bulter has struggled to get it going on offense through the first three games, especially when guarded by Giannis Antetokounmpo and PJ Tucker. However, the biggest disappointment so far has been the play of Tyler Herro. For someone who the Heat believe is a cornerstone piece in the franchise's future, the 21-year-old is averaging under eight points and is shooting just 28% from the field these playoffs.
Tyler Herro in the bubble:
Tyler Herro this playoffs:
33.3 3P% pic.twitter.com/5XXBeBUMQF
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 28, 2021
If the Heat are to come away with a victory in Game 4 and extend this series, they will need a performance from the Tyler Herro we saw in last year's bubble.
Final Bucks-Heat Game 4 Prediction & Pick
This is not the same Miami Heat from last year's bubble. They are not getting the same production out of their role players and have been unable to break down Milwaukee’s defense.
Meanwhile, the trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday are playing some of their best basketball this season. They have made it clear that they are not just looking to beat the Heat, but they are trying to humiliate them due to the embarrassment Miami caused them in the 2020 series.
For these reasons, the Bucks will cover the spread and advance to round two in this year's 2021 NBA Playoffs.
FINAL PICK: Milwaukee Bucks -5 (-110)