The Los Angeles Clippers take on the Dallas Mavericks with their backs against the wall in Game 6 of the only first round playoff series still ongoing. It’s time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series and make a Clippers-Mavericks prediction and pick.
The Mavericks are looking to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the first time since 2011. The last time the Mavericks made the postseason and got past their first opponent, they won the Finals with franchise legend Dirk Nowitzki.
The Clippers need to avoid an embarrassing first round exit after being picked by many as the preseason favorite to hoist the championship trophy.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the opening Clippers-Mavericks odds for Game 6.
NBA Odds: Clippers-Mavericks Odds
Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 (-110)
Dallas Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Over 216.5 Points (-110)
Under 216.5 Points (-110)
Why The Mavericks Could Cover The Spread
Dallas comes home riding the high of an impressive Game 5 win.
For the first time in the series, it felt like the Mavericks absorbed the Clippers best punch and still came out on top. In both Games 1 and 2, Los Angeles looked flat from nearly start to finish. In Game 5, the Mavs clawed back from a double-digit lead and withstood a late Clips charge.
More importantly for the Mavericks, their role players came back to life. After scoring a combined 16 points in Games 3 and 4, Tim Hardaway Jr. came alive late to score 20 including some huge plays down the stretch.
The natural urge is to put the spotlight on Luka Doncic, and deservedly so. The Slovenian star is averaging 35.1 points on 48% shooting from the field. But Luka is much more consistent than the Mavs supporting cast. You can count on Doncic to show up nine times out of ten, but the players that put Dallas over the top are the guys around Doncic.
The numbers from the supporting cast in the Mavs wins and losses are day and night. The chart below shows how Dallas' backups shot in Games 1, 2, and 5 vs. Games 3 and 4.
| FG% in W's | FG% in L's | 3P% in W's | 3P% in L's | |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 50.0% | 22.7% | 51.8% | 40.0% |
| Dorian Finney-Smith | 41.7% | 31.5% | 46.7% | 25.0% |
| Jalen Brunson | 52.9% | 43.7% | 0% | 50% |
Without at least some offensive help for Luka, the Mavs cannot win. Thankfully for Dallas fans, they should find their footing on their home floor in Game 6.
On defense, the Mavericks need to continue to pressure the Clippers shooters. When the Mavs defend the three-point line, they win.
The Clippers three-point percentage in their wins is 40.6%. In their losses it is only 34.2%. As long as Finney-Smith and Hardaway Jr. can chase the Clips wings off the line and get hands in their faces, this game will be winnable for the Mavericks.
Why The Clippers Could Cover The Spread
After coming up one play short in Game 6, the Clippers are somehow facing elimination in a series that they were heavy favorites to win.
While they might be desperate, Clippers fans and futures bettors should take comfort in the fact that this team can easily run off two wins to advance.
After shooting the lights out all series, Kawhi Leonard finally had an off-night. For the first time in the series, Leonard shot below 40% from the floor and went 1-7 from deep.
These nights happen to all stars, but an outing this bad is a once in a blue moon occurrence for the Klaw. Kawhi played 52 regular season games. He shot below 40% in only three of them. The odds Leonard posts back-to-back off games are next to zero.
The Clippers offense will be in a good spot as long as Kawhi regains his form. Considering every Clippers starter hit double-digit scoring in their last matchup, Los Angeles should get enough from Paul George and their supporting cast to keep up with Dallas.
On the defensive end, the Mavericks are still due for some regression in their hot shooting.
Dallas shot the ball at the 12th lowest rate in the regular season from deep, finishing with a 36.2% mark from three. They are currently shooting 42.3% from beyond the arc in the series.
It's not like the Clippers' perimeter defense has disappeared. Dallas is just nailing contested threes, and connecting on most of their clutch shots.
In their wins, the Mavs have been lights out beyond the arc when it counts. Dallas is shooting 45.5% from three in the last five minutes in their wins.
This number will drop, and the Clippers should take advantage.
Final Clippers-Mavericks Prediction & Pick
There hasn't been a win for the home team, and I expect the trend to continue Friday night. The Clippers are too deep and too skilled to go out like this, and this series seems destined to go seven games. Los Angeles should hold their own with another emphatic win in the American Airlines Center and set up a winner take-all game on Sunday.
FINAL CLIPPERS-MAVERICKS PREDICTION AND PICK: LAC 114, DAL 107 (LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -2.5)
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