The Miami Heat take on the Philadelphia 76ers for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference semi-finals series. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our NBA odds series, which includes our Heat-Sixers prediction and pick we have laid out below.

 

Philadelphia finally got its foot in the door of this series with a 99-79 Game 4 win over the top-seeded Heat. Though he didn't play particularly like the MVP candidate we saw all season, Joel Embiid still gave the Sixers an added boost. He finished with 18 points and 11 rebounds. Tyrese Maxey led Philly with 21 points while Danny Green also found his stroke from downtown with seven three-pointers en route to a 21-point evening as well.

Meanwhile, only Jimmy Butler got going for the Heat as he poured in 33 points on 12-of-22 shooting. Aside from Butler, only Tyler Herro scored in double-digits. He scored 14 points off the bench but shot just 5-of-15 from the floor.

Here are the Heat-Sixers Game 4 NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Playoffs Odds: Heat-Sixers Odds

Miami Heat: +2 (-110)

Philadelphia 76ers: -2 (-110)

Over: 207 (-110)

Under: 207 (-110)

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Why The Heat Could Cover The Spread

Despite the blowout loss, the Heat are only two-point underdogs for this one. They finished with a regular-season road record of 24-17. At home, they are at 29-12.

Jimmy Butler was really the only Miami player that showed up, so look for the Heat to give him more help for Game 4. Bam Adebayo was held to just nine points and three rebounds on 2-of-9 shooting and finished with a minus-22 in 34 minutes. Joel Embiid's presence may have presented some problems for the one-time All-Star. It'll be interesting how he bounces back after a sub-par performance. Tyler Herro also didn't have his best game despite being the only other Heat player to score in double-figures. The newly-minted Sixth Man of the Year shot just 5-of-15. He'll need to step up offensively if Miami wants to take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Veteran guard Kyle Lowry also returned from a four-game absence due to a left hamstring strain. The 36-year-old struggled in his first game back, going scoreless for the first time in the playoffs since Game 1 of their first-round series in the 2019 postseason. Lowry could still be bothered with the injury since he is listed as questionable ahead of Game 4. But if he is able to find his groove and rhythm, Miami could head back home with a chance to close out the series and return to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Aside from Lowry, the Heat have a ton of other players listed as questionable: Tyler Herro (left ankle sprain), PJ Tucker (right calf strain), Max Strus (right hamstring strain), Dewayne Dedmon (cold), Caleb Martin (left ankle sprain), and Gabe Vincent (right knee irritation). All of them play a role in the Heat rotation in these playoffs. Nonetheless, all of them did suit up for Miami in Game 3.

Why The Sixers Could Cover The Spread

With the amount of injuries the Heat are dealing with, Philly can still take advantage of Miami not being at a hundred percent. Sure, their superstar big man Joel Embiid is also not at full strength. But he showed on Friday he is still capable of making an impact despite playing hurt. Aside from the concussion and orbital fracture he recently suffered, Embiid is also playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb.

Tyrese Maxey has been a revelation in these playoffs and he continued his onslaught in Game 3. He has thrived even more despite the arrival of a ball-dominant guard in James Harden. Coach Doc Rivers loves him and should continue playing a significant role in their offense moving forward.

Also, Danny Green had it going from beyond the arc on Friday, draining 7-of-9 three-pointers. He finally broke out of a shooting funk where he made just 2-of-14 from long distance through the first two games of the series. If Green continues to take advantage of home cooking, the Sixers should be able to cover the spread and tie this series at 2-2.

This game is essentially as must-win for Philadelphia as they wouldn't want to head back to South Beach facing a 3-1 series deficit. The Sixers, however, aren't particularly the best team at home. In fact, they are a better away team than at home. They finished with just a 24-17 record at Wells Fargo Center this season, as opposed to 27-14 on the road.

Final Heat-Sixers Prediction & Pick

I'm going with Philadelphia to win this. They just blew out the Heat with Embiid back and appear to be the healthier squad considering all the injuries Miami is dealing with. In addition, they are playing with more to lose since dropping Sunday's game means they will face elimination in Miami in Game 5.

Final Heat-Sixers Prediction & Pick: Sixers: -2 (-110)