The Denver Nuggets will take on the Golden State Warriors to help kick off the first round of the playoffs on Saturday. It's time to continue our NBA odds series and make a Nuggets-Warriors prediction and pick.
Two Western Conference mainstays will battle it out in this series. The Nuggets have made the postseason in each of the last three seasons, making it as far as the Western Conference Finals in 2020. Now they'll face a Golden State team that is making their first playoff appearance since the 2019 Finals when they lost in the championship. This series has the potential to be one of the most entertaining matchups of the first round, so let's cut to the chase and get into the pick.
Here are the Nuggets-Warriors NBA Playoff odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoff Odds: Nuggets-Warriors Odds
Denver Nuggets: +6 (-108)
Golden State Warriors: -6 (-112)
Over: 223 (-110)
Under: 223 (-110)
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Why The Nuggets Could Cover The Spread
The Warriors have major injury questions coming into this game. Superstar point guard Stephen Curry hasn't played since March 16th because of a nagging foot injury, but reports say that he may be able to take the floor here. That's a big maybe, and there are concerns even if he does take the floor. Curry could be on a minutes restriction, or he could simply not be healthy enough to play his best. Either scenario gives the Nuggets a huge advantage in this game, as the Warriors have shown that they rely on Curry to win games.
These teams played each other four times, and the Nuggets came away with three victories. Two of those wins came against a fully healthy Warriors team, and two came on the Warriors' home floor. Center Nikola Jokic was obviously a huge part of all of those wins, as Golden State has absolutely no defensive answer for him. Jokic had a double-double at the very least in every matchup with the Warriors this season. That trend will likely continue here, and that could very well lead to a Denver victory.
Why The Warriors Could Cover The Spread
The Golden State offense should perform well here. Over the course of the season, the Warriors averaged 110 points per game on 47% shooting, including 36% shooting from beyond the arc. The Nuggets are a mediocre defensive team, allowing 110 points per game while giving up solid shooting percentages to their opponents. Golden State also scores 14 fast break points per game, one of the best numbers in the NBA. Denver has struggled to stop fast breaks all season, so this looks like a plus matchup all around for the Warriors.
Home court advantage will play a part here. The Warriors have been one of the best home teams in the NBA this year, earning a 31-10 mark when they play in Chase Center. Golden State has also had success against the spread at home, as they've gone 23-16-2 ATS as the home team. Chase Center will be particularly rowdy for a postseason game, which should make things much tougher for the Nuggets.
Final Nuggets-Warriors Prediction & Pick
With the injury concerns surrounding the Warriors, this looks like a slam-dunk spot to take Denver. They've already beaten Golden State three times this season, and now they may face a hobbled version of the Warriors. Lock in the Nuggets in this one.
Final Nuggets-Warriors Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets: +6 (-108)
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