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The 2023 NBA Three-Point Contest has finally arrived! With the league's most lethal outside shooters gathered in Salt Lake City, there are a number of capable sharpshooters who could walk away with the Three-Point Contest crown. Below we continue our NBA odds series with an NBA Three-Point Contest prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Last season Karl-Anthony Towns became the first center to win the Three-Point Contest. Of this year's contests, only Buddy Hield has won the contest previously. This will be Hield's third appearance in the event. He is one of three players who have previously participated in the contest, joining Damian Lillard (three) and Jayson Tatum (two). An important note is that since the 2020 contest, there have been two additional shots placed at the top of the key that are worth three points each instead of the usual one point.
Here are the NBA Three-Point Contest odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Odds: NBA Three-Point Contest Odds
Damian Lillard: +370
Buddy Hield: +410
Kevin Huerter: +460
Tyler Herro: +600
Lauri Markkanen: +700
Jayson Tatum: +800
Tyrese Haliburton: +1000
Julius Randle: +1200
How To Watch NBA Three-Point Contest
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT Live
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Buddy Hield Could Win The Three-Point Contest
The only former Three-Point Contest champion, Buddy Hield is one of the favorites to win this year's event at +410 odds. Hield's low odds are well-earned as he is the most experienced participant in addition to being one of the best shooters in the NBA. Hield won the 2020 contest thanks to draining his entire money rack en route to a 27-point championship finish.
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Hield returns in the midst of arguably the best shooting season of his career. The Indiana Pacer averages 17.5 PPG and 3.8 threes per game at a 42.6% clip. Hield has been lethal on wide-open threes this season, shooting 48.4% on such attempts. When it comes to the bonus top-of-the-key shots, Hield stands a good chance of draining both balls. Hield shoots 40.9% on above-the-break threes.
Why Damian Lillard Could Win The Three-Point Contest
Damian Lillard returns for his second Three-Point Contest appearance after having to drop out of the 2020 event. Dame holds the best odds to win the contest at +370 and for good reason. He is widely regarded as one of the best shooters of all time. Consequently, Lillard has made 2,234 threes in his career – sixth-most in NBA history.
After a subpar shooting season in 2021-22, he's bounced back to his usual elite form this year. Lillard averages 31.4 PPG and 4.2 threes per game at a 37% clip. Dame doesn't get to take many wide-open threes, but when he does they typically go in as he shoots 40.2% on such attempts. The right corner is his sweet spot considering he shoots 52.9% from there. In terms of the bonus shot at the top of the key, Lillard does struggle somewhat compared to his competitors, shooting 37.2% on above-the-break threes.
Why Kevin Huerter Could Win The Three-Point Contest
Outside of the top two guys, Kevin Huerter is certainly a name that is worth paying attention to. Huerter holds the third-best odds at +460. The Sacramento King averages 14.9 PPG and 2.6 threes per game at a 39.2% clip. He is incredibly consistent, having made at least 2.0 threes and shot at least 38% in four of his five seasons. Huerter is very efficient on wide-open threes, shooting 42.2% on such attempts. Looking at the bonus shot at the top of the key, he shoots 39.7% on above-the-break threes while on 5.6 attempts per game.
Why Lauri Markkanen Could Win The Three-Point Contest
The hometown hero Lauri Markkanen is an interesting bet considering his proficiency from deep, fan support, and favorable odds. The Utah forward averages 24.9 PPG and 3.0 threes per game at a 41.3% clip. While he has always been a high-volume shooter, he finds himself in the midst of the best shooting season of his career with career-highs in threes per game and three-point percentage. The big man has been lights-out on wide-open attempts, shooting 45.3%. Additionally, Markkanen is automatic from the left corner where he shoots 61.5%. In terms of the bonus top-of-the-key shots, Markkanen shoots 37.5% on above-the-break threes on 5.7 attempts per game.
Why Tyler Herro Could Win The Three-Point Contest
The best “sleeper” to win the contest is Miami guard Tyler Herro. That being said, Herro is a streaky outside shooter who could easily get hot and find himself as the last man standing. For the season, Herro averages 20.6 PPG and 3.0 threes per game at a 36.9% clip. Although his overall efficiency is down, he remains lethal on wide-open attempts where he shoots 44.8%. He doesn't have one area where he is especially effective, however, Herro is well-rounded across the arc. The one area of concern for Herro is his ability to his the bonus shots from above the break as he shot just 36.2% from there during the regular season.
Final NBA Three-Point Contest Prediction & Pick
The Three-Point contest is such a toss-up that it's hard to feel super confident about any one guy. Consequently, my best bet would be to hammer the favorite, Buddy Hield, and then sprinkle a little on one of either Lauri Markkanen or Tyler Herro.
Final NBA Three-Point Contest Prediction & Pick: Buddy Hield +410
