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You can't separate the Golden State Warriors' reported interest in trading Jonathan Kuminga for a high pick in the 2023 NBA Draft from the other major questions this team must answer during a potentially franchise-altering offseason.
It was only February when the Warriors finally gave up on James Wiseman, scrapping the two-timeline blueprint to firmly prioritize winning more titles during Stephen Curry's extended prime. Kuminga, just 20, seemed like an emerging linchpin for the defending champions regardless, taking consistent strides during an otherwise tumultuous regular season that culminated with the best basketball of his young career as Golden State's weeks-long push for the playoffs began.
“It's hard for young guys to come into this league and pick up everything that's being thrown at them, but he's done that,” Steve Kerr said of Kuminga on March 22nd, shortly after he scored 22 points on 11 shots while hounding Luka Doncic across the floor in the Warriors' most significant win of the season to date. “Here we are near the end of his second year, and he's just dramatically better than he was when he first arrived. Testament to him and his work ethic and his resilience in the face of a lot of adversity, a lot of difficult ups and downs.”
Kuminga had fallen completely out of the rotation a month later, barely getting off the bench against the Sacramento Kings in an epic first-round battle that seemed like an ideal environment for his mix of physical tools, finishing prowess and ability to check multiple positions—on paper, at least. He crumbled under the postseason pressure cooker when given a chance early in the series, unable to contain De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk off the bounce while indulging his penchant for questonable shot selection. More damning, Kuminga failed to impact the game on the glass and in transition, too.
By the time Golden State's brief postseason run was over, all the progress Kuminga had made during an objectively promising sophomore season seemed wasted. He played even less versus the Los Angeles Lakers than Kings, Kerr finding no use for Kuminga despite the Dubs' dire need for explosive, varied finishers on one side of the ball and stout wing defenders on the other.
News of Kuminga's desire to be traded barring a “full-time role” with the Warriors next season came mere moments after their hopes for back-to-back titles were dashed for good.
Nothing has changed for Golden State in the interim. Bob Myers' exit no doubt makes upcoming contract negotiations more fraught, but Draymond Green is still expected to be back on a new, multi-year deal. Extension talks await with Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole—recent intel about the team's comfort retaining him going forward notwithstanding—remains the Dubs' biggest team-building domino.
Virtually certain for Golden State as draft night approaches and free agency looms just behind it? The traditional starting five will be back next season, with Gary Payton II and Moses Moody entrenched off the bench. The rest of the rotation is in flux, the ultimate fates of Poole and Kuminga poised to best inform what the Warriors will look like as another quest for championship glory dawns come September.
There's no denying Golden State needs the attributes Kuminga's already proven he brings to the floor. He'd be a positive contributor in 2023-24 even if his all-around development stalls. The same can't be said for the vast majority of rookies, a reality that—especially coupled with Kerr's time-honored aversion to letting young players work through mistakes on the fly—casts doubt on any notion the Dubs are eyeing a select group of draft prospects by making Kuminga available via trade.
Could Anthony Black's impressive two-way feel and scalability could help him get on the floor early in Golden State? Jarace Walker's blend of size, switchability and burgeoning comfort as a passer and standstill shooter make him a potentially snug fit next to Green or Kevon Looney up front. Maybe Taylor Hendricks' rapidly accelerating trajectory continues at the next level, giving the Warriors a young forward who can knock down open shots and play multiple roles defensively next season before rounding out the rough edges of his game down the line.
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But what Christian Braun did for the Denver Nuggets in NBA Finals is the exception, not the rule. Singular, all-encompassing offensive forces like Nikola Jokic and Curry obscure their teammates' weaknesses on that side of the ball, but Golden State still isn't Denver. The presence of Green and Looney as foundational defensive fixtures makes it difficult for the Dubs to play another questionable shooter or limited attacker versus high-level competition despite Curry's sweeping influence.
Even if Golden State's revamped front office falls in love with a likely top-10 pick, there's no guarantee he'll get well-earned playoff minutes as a rookie. Odds are squarely against it given construction of the Warriors' established core.
Almost as pertinent a factor is whether anyone in this draft class beyond Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson and Amen Thompson boasts a higher ceiling than Kuminga. The risk of moving him for a player who both provides less of an impact next season and dims Golden State's hopes of remaining relevant once Curry finally regresses just isn't worth taking.
Trading Kuminga for a late lottery pick then packaging it with Poole and No. 19 to go chasing after a true impact veteran, though? That's a much more appealing approach for the Warriors, one that could go a long way toward maximizing their best possible trade offer given Poole's deflated value and the always-inflated intrigue of an unused high draft pick.
The problem is there's no obvious player for Golden State to target under that framework.
Pascal Siakam would represent a massive talent upgrade and his contract comes off the books next summer, but he's a streaky long-range shooter at best who's not quite the all-court defender of several years ago. The Brooklyn Nets would want more to part with Mikal Bridges, and the same holds true for the Boston Celtics with Jaylen Brown. The New Orleans Pelicans would rather not sell low on Brandon Ingram; his reliance on the mid-range and lack of defensive teeth runs contrary to the Dubs' identity anyway.
There may not be any fool-proof answers for Golden State this summer. Effectively swapping Kuminga for a rookie definitely isn't among them, and trading Poole in a cost-cutting deal that doesn't help the Warriors level up in the West certainly isn't, either. Could turning Kuminga into a high-level draft asset be the first necessary step toward finding one?
The 2023 NBA Draft is barely more than a week away. Golden State's best-laid offseason plans, whatever they really are, will come to the fore soon enough.
