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The Golden State Warriors handily dispatched their first-round matchup in the Denver Nuggets after just five games. But the Western Conference Semi-Finals is likely going to be a vastly different story.
The Nuggets were buoyed by the reigning MVP in Nikola Jokic and gave the Warriors everything that they could muster. But they still operated without their second and third best players with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on the sidelines.
Golden State won't be playing an opponent operating under the same handicap in the second round. The Memphis Grizzlies are now completely healthy with the only member of the regular season rotation out to start the series, Steven Adams, largely kept on the bench throughout their first-round series win over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
But Memphis did have trouble handling the T-Wolves in the first round. With Steve Kerr and the rest of the Warriors coaching staff surely going through all the film to see what Minnesota did right against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies, there's likely one player that's going to play a more significant role for this series.
The Warriors' X-Factor vs. Grizzlies in West Semis
Ja Morant was one of the best players in the NBA during the regular season and got some dark horse MVP buzz for leading the Grizzlies to the second best record in the league. Containing him his priority number one for Golden State.
The Grizzlies point guard visibly struggled against the Timberwolves. His scoring efficiency dropped significantly, falling from 27.4 points per game on nearly 50% shooting during the regular season to just 21.5 per game on a poor 38.6% from the field in six games against Minnesota. His turnovers also jumped from 3.4 miscues to 4.2 in that span.
The Timberwolves had the luxury of starting a stalwart backcourt defender in Patrick Beverley, who enthusiastically took on the challenge of trying to slow down Ja Morant. The Warriors have found the right offensive formula with the emerging Jordan Poole inserted in the starting lineup with Stephen Curry now back at relatively full strength. But neither member of that backcourt is an appealing candidate to defend Morant, nor is a post-injury Klay Thompson.
That's why the Golden State Warriors are going to have to lean more heavily on Gary Payton II.
Gary Payton represents the Warriors' strongest backcourt defender by far. Golden State will likely stagger the minutes featuring Steph Curry and Jordan Poole, which means Payton can be inserted in spurts alongside either backcourt star.
Slowing down Ja Morant will be Gary Payton II's primary task, but the question remains how much time he can be kept on the floor. His premium defense is going to be a given, which will definitely affect Morant either by holding him to his current playoff slump or at the very least making him work even harder to get his points or make plays. But he'll also need to prove that he's a decent enough threat to score as well.
GPII has turned himself into a serviceable three-point shooter, connecting on 35.8% from deep. He's made six of his eight attempts from distance in his first taste of NBA playoff action. If he can continue to be a plus on the offensive end, the Warriors can afford to leave him on the floor even longer.
Steve Kerr even used Gary Payton II to finish the game during their Game 5 closeout contest against the Nuggets. The 102-98 contest was the lowest scoring of the series and saw Payton have his elite defensive fingerprints all over that contest, playing in nearly 26 minutes and making a huge impact not just defensively, but also tallying 15 points with three triples.
The Memphis Grizzlies were the second-highest scoring team during the regular season. They also played with the fastest pace in the entire NBA, constantly pushing the pace at breakneck speeds with Ja Morant in the driver's seat. That's why being able to disrupt the Grizzlies in whatever way possible becomes crucial for the Warriors to take control of the series.
The Golden State Warriors have the offensive firepower to battle head-on with the high-powered Grizzlies offense. But locking in defensively by mixing in Gary Payton II into the rotation for key stretches could be the game-changer they need.
