As the 2025-26 NBA season approaches, ESPN’s panel of insiders released their projected records for all 30 teams, forecasting contenders, play-in hopefuls, and bottom-tier finishers. Among the Western Conference field, the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors are predicted to be neck-and-neck for the final guaranteed playoff position.
ESPN projects the Lakers to finish with a 50-32 record, placing them sixth in the conference and securing the last automatic playoff berth. They are listed behind the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18), Houston Rockets (54-28), Denver Nuggets (53-29), Minnesota Timberwolves (51-31) and LA Clippers (50-32).
Despite matching their projected record from last season, when they secured the No. 3 seed with less talent on the roster, the Lakers are slotted lower in the standings this time around. ESPN analysts cited the rising strength of rival teams as a key reason for the shift. Los Angeles enters the season coming off a first-round playoff exit to the Timberwolves in five games, but the roster has undergone a dramatic overhaul since.
ESPN projects Lakers’ Luka Doncic era, Warriors’ Jimmy Butler-led core to shape playoff race
The Lakers’ most significant change came at the February trade deadline, when they acquired Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks in exchange for Anthony Davis. The front office has since added Marcus Smart, Jake LaRavia, and Deandre Ayton to complement Doncic and veteran LeBron James, who is preparing for his 23rd NBA season.
ESPN’s Tim MacMahon highlighted the intrigue surrounding the team.
“The Lakers are arguably the most intriguing team in the West, as they make the transition into the Luka Doncic era with all-time leading scorer LeBron James still on the roster and very much in the spotlight.”
The Warriors, meanwhile, are forecasted as a play-in team with a projected 48-34 record, good for the seventh seed. Golden State finished with the same mark last season, securing a spot in the playoffs after a late surge sparked by the acquisition of Jimmy Butler III from the Miami Heat. Butler’s arrival helped the Warriors post a 23-8 record down the stretch, pushing them into the postseason.
Warriors’ health will be key as Lakers loom in season opener
In the 2025 playoffs, Golden State stunned the second-seeded Rockets in the opening round before injuries ended their run. Stephen Curry suffered a hamstring injury in Game 1 of the second round against Minnesota, sidelining him for the remainder of the series. The Timberwolves advanced in five games.
ESPN’s Anthony Slater emphasized the challenges facing Golden State this season.
“The West is so crowded with contenders that a couple of them will inevitably be bumped into this bracket, forced to play an extra game or two with their playoff hopes on the line. That's particularly dangerous for older teams like the Warriors and Mavericks, who will likely spend the final month of the season in a full-out standings sprint and won't get the extra week of pre-playoff rest the top teams receive. However, two teams still make it out of the play-in. The seventh-seeded Warriors beat the second-seeded Rockets in the first round last April. If Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler III and Draymond Green are healthy, the West's top two seeds won't be ecstatic to see the Warriors emerging from the seventh or eighth slot this spring.”
The Lakers and Warriors, positioned side by side in ESPN’s projections, open the new season against one another on Oct. 21 at Crypto.com Arena. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on NBC Peacock.
