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The Orlando Magic clinched the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference standings by holding off the Washington Wizards in the NBA restart in Orlando. Their reward? A first-round matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, owners of the best record in the league for the second consecutive season.
Milwaukee and Orlando played each other four times in 2019-20, all wins for the Bucks. There are no fans at Disney World, however, so that's one advantage for the Magic. They won't have to play in front of a raucous Milwaukee crowd; they may be able to steal a game at the neutral sight games.
The Magic players, however, are certainly thinking the same thing as fans: how are they going to defeat Giannis Antetokounmpo and Co. four times and pull off one of the biggest upsets in NBA history?
For starters, Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross each have to average at least 20-plus points per game in the series. There's no evidence that that is possible, but fans have seen stranger things happen in the NBA. If the Magic can get that type of elite production from its top four players, they would certainly have a shot of pulling off the upset.
Ross and Fournier essentially have to be lights-out from 3 and not miss any open shots against the stifling Bucks defense. Vucevic and Gordon, meanwhile, would have to dominate in the paint and command double-teams so that Orlando's shooters could get free for consistent 3s.
Former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz is the next key factor in this series. If he can make things difficult for Bucks guards Eric Bledsoe and George Hill by scoring on offense, always pushing the ball off makes and misses and being a pest on defense, that could be a game-changer since he has fresh young legs.
The Magic would also need Michael Carter-Williams to hound his defenders and occasionally deliver something on offense with 10-to-15 points off the bench. To pull off a momentous upset, the Magic need to have performances that no one ever expects to happen.
Fultz's lane penetration can free up Magic shooters for open looks, too. Orlando is going to have to shoot better than 34.3 percent as a team from deep, though. That was 25th in the NBA during the 2019-20 regular season.
The Bucks have the best scoring offense in the NBA along with their stout defense. They average 118.7 points per game. The Magic would have to limit the Bucks maybe 10-to-12 points under their average to magically win the series. The only way that is happening is if Giannis and Khris Middleton just completely forget how to play basketball, à la Space Jam.
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That's how lopsided this series is — it needs actual magic to help Orlando beat Milwaukee.
It doesn't help that the Magic are going to be without Jonathan Isaac for the remainder of their campaign. He's a future Defensive Player of the Year candidate and arguably the team's best defender, who could have made things difficult for Giannis at the rim had he not tore his ACL during the seeding games.
Without Isaac and Mo Bamba, the Magic's rim protection takes a big hit. The only way Orlando is rebounding from that is by possibly increasing its steals per game average and preventing the Bucks from even getting up a shot.
The Magic won Game 1 of their first-round series in 2019 against the Toronto Raptors before losing four straight. Since there are no fans at Disney World, the chances of someone on the Magic getting hot and going off against the Bucks are higher than they normally would be.
With that said, Orlando is going to need some type of Herculean performances from Vucevic, Gordon, Fournier and Ross. They are the four most experienced scorers on the Magic and there are higher odds of them going off in an empty gym than Orlando finding a way to stop the Bucks' high-powered offense.
All signs point toward the Magic losing in the first round of the playoffs for the second consecutive season. If they somehow play above their ceiling, make shots consistently and luck up by getting some poor performances from Giannis, only then will Orlando have a chance to win this series. For what it's worth though, they could still lose even if that all happens since the Bucks are a pretty deep team.
Heading into the series, Magic head coach Steve Clifford is probably telling his guys that all the pressure is on the Bucks. After all, Orlando has nothing to lose.
